Highlights

• MP Materials is the only vertically integrated rare earth producer in North America.
• The company has experienced a dramatic 100% stock surge driven by strategic government and corporate partnerships.
• Secured a $400 million investment from the Department of Defense (DoD).
• Established a $500 million sustainable magnet supply deal with Apple.
• Plays a crucial role in the US critical minerals strategy.
• Despite short-term financial volatility, MP Materials is strategically positioned at the core of US industrial independence in rare earth element production.

---

MP Materials (opens in a new tab) (NYSE:MP), the only vertically integrated rare earth producer in North America, has surged nearly 100% in a single month, closing August 2 at $63.69. The dramatic climb follows a series of strategic wins: a $400 million equity investment from the U.S. Department of Defense and a $500 million sustainable magnet supply deal with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Together, these deals place MP squarely at the epicenter of the U.S. rare earth industrial strategy.

According to Rich Duprey's August 3 report for Yahoo Finance/24/7 Wall St (opens in a new tab)., the DoD deal includes a 10-year price floor of $110/kg for NdPr—nearly double prevailing Chinese prices—effectively de-risking MP’s revenues. Apple’s commitment to recycled magnet materials from MP’s Fort Worth facility further locks in downstream demand aligned with ESG trends.

The government’s overt endorsement, combined with geopolitical urgency around China-free critical mineral supply chains, has made MP the rare earth poster child. But should retail investors chase this rally?

What’s Solid

• MP’s DoD contract and price floor offer unmatched supply chain stability.
• The Apple partnership signals growing corporate trust in U.S.-based magnet supply.
• Mountain Pass remains the Western Hemisphere’s only active rare earth mine and processor.
• The $63.69 stock price reflects legitimate geopolitical tailwinds and rising EV, defense, and tech demand.

What’s Missing or Risky

• Financial health remains fragile: Q1 EBITDA was negative $2.7M, with net losses of $19.9M and a net margin of -48.4%.
• A heavy reliance on government and single-customer contracts (notably General Motors) introduces concentration risk.
• Valuation is stretched: analysts estimate the stock is 26% overvalued, with a 12-month target of $57.88, implying downside from current levels.
• Yahoo Finance flags significant volatility, with short-term swings rising to 19%, and a recent technical “pivot top” may suggest a short-term correction.

What REEx Readers Should Ask

• Can MP scale separation and magnet production fast enough to meet contract volume?
• Will Fort Worth’s recycled magnet facility achieve economic viability—or rely on subsidies?
• Is there a real “ex-China” supply chain yet, or is MP still reliant on Chinese processing equipment and know-how? (note we believe the brilliant team at MP Materials will overcome challenges here)

REEx Reflections

MP Materials remains a cornerstone of the U.S. rare earth revival—but at $63.69, this may be a FOMO-fueled peak. Long-term investors should track Q3 earnings, Fort Worth ramp-up progress, and magnet sales diversification. A tactical pullback to the $30–35 range may offer a more rational entry point into this strategically vital—but financially vulnerable—rare earth play.

Despite short-term valuation concerns and financial volatility, the long-term trajectory for MP Materials points decisively upward. The United States has crossed the Rubicon on critical mineral independence—there is no turning back, regardless of which party holds power. From national defense to clean energy and advanced electronics, the entire industrial base now hinges on a secure, domestic supply of rare earth elements.

What does this mean?  MP Materials, as the only vertically integrated rare earth producer in North America, is positioned squarely at the nexus of this national imperative. With guaranteed government offtake, corporate demand from tech giants, and deepening geopolitical urgency, MP’s strategic value will only grow. As the U.S. rebuilds its full-spectrum critical minerals supply chain, MP isn’t just a participant—it’s the cornerstone. And markets will price that in. 

Yes, there will be some ups and downs, but the probabilities for this upbeat reality look ever more significant, assuming, of course, crisp execution of the business plan, the ongoing tracking of performance, and the absence of some game-changing wild card (e.g., unexpected U.S. government and China deal, which is possible).

™ Rare Earth Exchanges. All rights reserved.