Highlights

• Mountain Pass is crucial but not the sole solution for US rare earth independence, with multiple international players emerging.
• The US rare earth strategy requires comprehensive, long-term industrial policy and multi-national coordination across mining, processing, and manufacturing.
• While China currently dominates rare earth processing, Western allies are actively developing alternative capacity and supply chain alternatives.

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The South China Morning Post (SCMP) headline—“For the US, it’s Mountain Pass – or fail (opens in a new tab)”—makes for a dramatic read, but the framing leans toward hyperbole. While Mountain Pass is undeniably central to the U.S. rare earth strategy, suggesting it's the only viable path oversimplifies a growing ex-China ecosystem. Companies like Lynas, Arafura, Iluka, REEtec, and even the Saskatchewan Research Council are developing oxide production capacity that, while nascent, offers critical redundancy to Mountain Pass. Failure in California wouldn’t mean total collapse—but it would be a serious setback.

Then there’s the massive potential of emerging players like Brazilian Rare Earths. But potential isn’t enough—upstream resources must align with midstream processing and real downstream demand. Without that integration, even the richest deposits remain just rocks in the ground.

Yes, the climb toward rare earth independence remains steep for the West, but it’s doable, over time, especially if governments align on an integrated, comprehensive, and enduring industrial policy.

The Historical Context: True, But Incomplete

The SCMP article is right to recount Mountain Pass’s boom-bust legacy. Once a world leader in rare earths, the mine’s shutdown in 2002 over environmental issues and the subsequent Molycorp bankruptcy in 2015 were turning points. Today’s operator, MP Materials, has revived the site under more robust environmental and engineering frameworks. With $1.5 billion in public-private investment, including a DoD-backed price floor ($110/kg NdPr) and equity support, Mountain Pass is now home to the U.S.’s only commercial-scale rare earth separation facility.

But SCMP leaves out key technical and geopolitical nuances. For example, MP’s downstream magnet manufacturing (“10X Facility”) is still in development, and its ability to produce heavy rare earths—critical for defense—is not yet proven at scale. Meanwhile, China still controls 98%+ of HREE separation capacity.

What's Speculative?

The article implies a binary outcome: revive Mountain Pass or lose the rare earth race. But that’s not how markets work. The U.S. rare earth strategy is no longer a one-mine plan, especially with allies in Australia, Canada, and Europe co-investing in processing facilities. Also missing: mention of the DoD’s strategic stockpile purchases, recent offtake contracts with Apple, and growing bipartisan U.S. support for critical mineral supply chain diversification.

Bottom Line: High Stakes, Not Checkmate

Mountain Pass is essential—but it’s not enough. While SCMP rightly underscores the urgency, it glosses over the broader, hard-fought rise of ex-China rare earth capacity now underway across allied nations. This isn’t a one-horse sprint—it’s a delicate, high-stakes relay, and Mountain Pass may be leading the charge, but it can’t cross the finish line alone. Winning this race will require more than rhetoric: it demands long-term strategy, deep capital, and a multi-national coordinated industrial policy that aligns mining, processing, manufacturing, and defense priorities across the West. Without that, the baton will drop—again.

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