Commodities, Confidence, and the Rare Earths Undercurrent

Highlights

• Gold and commodities prices surge, with rare earths emerging as critical strategic assets.
• China controls 61% of rare earth extraction and 92% of refining, wielding significant global trade influence.
• Projected 50-60% rise in rare earth demand by 2040 highlights the urgent need for global supply diversification.

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Fahad Badar (opens in a new tab), a Qatari banker, highlights gold’s 40% price rise in the past year and extends the argument to broader commodities. That much is factual: gold has surged, and UNCTAD data shows metals, ores, and minerals rising 23.6% year-on-year through March 2025. The article rightly emphasizes industrial demand—not just speculation—as the key driver for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and especially copper.

Rare Earths in the Spotlight

Where the piece shines is in its recognition of rare earths as strategic commodities. Citing the International Energy Agency, Badar notes China controls 61% of extraction and 92% of refining. He also accurately describes the Geneva negotiations in May, where China loosened export license restrictions on seven rare earths (samarium, gadolinium, yttrium, terbium, lutetium, dysprosium, and scandium) in exchange for tariff relief. This episode underscores rare earths as bargaining chips in geopolitical trade-offs.

Where the Narrative Stretches

The article suggests that ending China’s license restrictions equates to a lasting solution for non-military buyers. That conclusion is premature. Export licenses remain subject to bureaucratic discretion, and Beijing has already demonstrated a willingness to weaponize approvals. Investors should treat the “key outcome” language with caution—it downplays the fragility of access. Similarly, the broad framing of “commodities as more precious than gold” slides toward rhetorical flourish rather than balanced analysis.

What Investors Should Note

The accurate point: demand for rare earths is projected to rise 50–60% by 2040. This will test both supply diversification and policy agility. The U.S. is indeed funding projects in Brazil, South Africa, and domestically, but scaling takes years. Europe, notably absent in the piece, is still struggling to close the upstream gap despite magnet plants now breaking ground.

Investor Takeaway

• Solid fact: Rare earth demand is real, tied to EVs, renewables, defense, and cloud infrastructure.
• Speculative tilt: Suggesting China’s export license rollback is a reliable fix glosses over structural risk.
• Blind spot: Europe’s role in the supply chain is missing, leaving readers with a U.S.-China binary that understates broader global stakes.

Bottom line: the article captures the strategic importance of rare earths but underplays China’s enduring leverage. For investors, the opportunity lies in projects outside China—but the timeline to meaningful supply independence is long.

Source: Gulf Times (Doha), “Why commodities matter more than ever (opens in a new tab)” by Fahad Badar, September 21, 2025

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