Highlights

• Northern Minerals' Browns Range Project aims to produce approximately 4,350 tpa TREO concentrate.
• Project involves a capital expenditure (CAPEX) of A$592 million.
• Potential strategic significance in the rare earths supply chain.
• Could supply approximately 8% of global dysprosium/terbium, challenging China's dominance in heavy rare earth processing.
• Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) reveals potential Net Present Value (NPV) of A$187 million in base case scenario.
• Potential NPV of A$705 million in divergence scenario, depending on ex-China price premiums.

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Northern Minerals (ASX: NTU) has released Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) outcomes (opens in a new tab) for the Browns Range Heavy Rare Earths Project. NTU states the project could supply ~8% of current global Dy/Tb at steady state around 2028, material for high-temperature NdFeB magnets, where China/Myanmar dominate mining and China processes >99% of HRE oxides. REEx’s recent analysis reached the same strategic conclusion: the HREE chain remains overwhelmingly China-centric, with pricing and policy set in Beijing—everyone else is a price-taker until ex-China capacity proves up.

Grounded in Facts (not hype)

• Ore Reserve: 5.18 Mt @ 0.88% TREO (Probable).
• Planned output: 4,350 tpa TREO in concentrate (25% TREO grade), with Dy/Tb ~70% of basket value.
• Economics: A$592m CAPEX, A$31.25/kg TREO C1; Base-case NPV8 A$187m, IRR 12%; Divergence case NPV8 A$705m, IRR 21% (ex-China price premium scenario).
• Flowsheet & de-risking: three years of on-site pilot-plant operations underpin a magnetic-separation + flotation route, ~84% TREO recovery.
• Approvals & access: key primary approvals granted; Native Title agreements executed; FEED commenced.
• Offtake: long-term supply agreement with Iluka’s Eneabba refinery; conditions precedent remain to be satisfied/extended.

(Sources: NTU DFS deck (opens in a new tab): project snapshot & approvals p.4; DFS highlights p.5–7; cost/NPV/IRR p.6,8; flowsheet & pilot history p.10; basket/value mix p.11; market dominance & >99% HRE processing in China p.12; Iluka terms & conditions notes p.3 n. two and p.15; funding status p.16.)

Where the Spin Starts

The investment case leans on prices rising well above today’s implied basket (US$50/kg) to CRU’s Base-case (US$107/kg), with extra upside only if a two-tier (ex-China premium) market holds. That may happen—DoD floor-price constructs and export curbs point that way—but it’s not guaranteed. Also, Iluka’s agreement is still conditional; the DFS explicitly flags potential termination if dates aren’t extended or met.

Why It Matters (REEx context)

Per our “China’s Tight Grip on Heavy Rare Earths” analysis, the supply chain bottleneck isn’t just mining—it’s separation, refining, and production, not to mention policy control. Browns Range is one of the most advanced Dy/Tb-rich xenotime projects outside China and Australia’s leading pure-play HREE development aligned to U.S./EU/Japan de-risking strategies. If financed and delivered, it would be a rare ex-China lever on Dy/Tb—the magnet additives that really pinch.

Note on governance: NTU’s current Executive Chair is Adam Handley (opens in a new tab). Earlier industry veterans have been involved historically, but today’s chair is Handley (see DFS deck p.24). 

The Takeaway

Legitimate project, real data, real approvals—still price- and financing-dependent. Celebrate the progress, but read past the optimism: China’s grip on HREEs doesn’t loosen until projects like Browns Range actually ship bags to Eneabba (refinery)—and get paid at the forecast price deck. Industrial policy from Australia and America is necessary.

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