Highlights

• India's lithium demand is projected to surge from 58 to 20,800 tonnes between 2030-2047, highlighting massive resource requirements.
• The National Critical Minerals Mission launches an ambitious plan with a ₹16,300-crore budget to secure international mineral assets and reduce import dependency.
• India's strategic moves in critical minerals could potentially reshape global supply chains and create new international partnerships.

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India’s policymakers are staring at a demand surge that borders on the fantastical. According to the Centre for Social and Economic Progress, lithium demand is projected to jump from 58 tonnes in 2030 to over 20,800 tonnes by 2047. Nickel use is expected to rise nearly 30-fold over the same period, while rare earths consumption is pegged to balloon with wind turbines, EV motors, and advanced electronics. The editorial correctly identifies India’s vulnerability: the country is overwhelmingly import-dependent.

War Chests and Work Plans

What’s real: New Delhi has begun to act. The National Critical Minerals Mission, announced in January 2025, carries a ₹16,300-crore budget. Concrete steps include empowering Khanij Bidesh India Ltd. to acquire assets abroad with a ₹4,500-crore fund, expanding access to the National Mineral Exploration Trust for overseas buys, and earmarking money for stockpiling (₹500 crore) and recycling incentives (₹1,500 crore). Plans for 1,200 exploration projects and 100 block auctions by 2031 are also credible on paper.

Where the Story Leans Forward

The editorial spins these initiatives as proof that India is poised for a “resource transformation.” That’s speculation. While the numbers add up, implementation risks are glossed over. Securing foreign assets is notoriously difficult in geopolitics-heavy markets like Africa or Latin America. Recycling requires infrastructure that India has yet to build. And the long-delayed Deep Sea Mission, dating back to the 1980s, shows how bold ideas can stall when technology and environmental safeguards collide.

What’s Missing in the Fine Print

Bias here is less about exaggeration and more about rosy framing. The piece highlights budget allocations and government intent but avoids deeper scrutiny of execution capacity. India’s state-owned firms have a mixed record of converting mandates into production. For the rare earth supply chain, the gap between announced capital and functional downstream processing is the chasm investors must watch.

Why This Matters Globally

India’s demand trajectory alone is enough to reshape global markets. If its strategy falters, dependence on Chinese supply chains will deepen. If it succeeds—even partially—India could emerge as a critical minerals swing buyer and processor, altering price dynamics and creating new partnerships for the West. Either way, New Delhi’s playbook is no longer a side story; it’s becoming one of the central narratives in the rare earth and critical minerals race.

Citation: Value chain competence in critical minerals, a must (opens in a new tab). The Hindu Businessline, September 5, 2025.

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