Highlights
- China and the US are engaged in a high-stakes geopolitical leverage game involving rare-earth magnets and airplane parts.
- Policy and documentation drive market movements, not political rhetoric or headline threats.
- Investors should focus on tracking trade paperwork, export licenses, and strategic supply chain alternatives.
Two props dominate today’s stage: China’s choke on rare-earth magnets and America’s grip on high-value airplane parts. President Trump waved the latter like a cudgel—“we have much bigger and better cards”—then teased he could “destroy China,” while insisting he won’t play that hand. Entertaining? Absolutely. Investable? Only when the rhetoric turns into rules.
Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) reports that President Trump just floated ‘200% tariffs … or something’—a headline-grabbing threat with no implementing notice to date.
On the ground, the gauge that matters—customs data—just twitched. After an April squeeze tied to export licensing, overall Chinese magnet exports hit a six-month high in July (~5,577 t, ~+75% month-over-month). Shipments to the U.S. rose to ~619 t (+75.5% m/m)—also a six-month high—underscoring Beijing’s ability to open or close the spigot. Policy, not price, still drives this tape.
That rebound came alongside a tariff truce and suggests Beijing can open (or close) the spigot at will. Treat it as a reminder: policy, not price, is still the prime mover in this market as cited in Reuters (opens in a new tab).
Signal two: Beijing is dispatching trade representative Li Chenggang to Washington this week. If the visit yields even a thin framework, supply-risk premia compress; if talks stall, expect licensing brinkmanship to return.
About the leverage game: magnets are China’s comfort zone—dominant capacity, policy levers within arm’s reach. Airplane parts are America’s: complex, certified, and hard to swap out on short notice. Yes, the U.S. can squeeze Chinese fleets; yes, China can pinch U.S. factories. But both “big sticks” carry blowback, which is why real moves tend to surface as filings and license tweaks—not podium thunder. Price Federal Register notices and customs prints, not quips.
Investor checklist (no theatrics):
• Paper, not podiums. Trade the documentation—tariff notices, export-license changes, DFARS procurement signals. If you can’t cite it, don’t bet the book on it.
• Next prints. Watch August/September magnet flows to see if July was a truce sugar high or a trend. Position sizing should flex with the data.
• Relative winners. When China toggles supply, ex-China chains gain optionality—U.S. magnet and separation projects, allied-country feedstock, and DFARS-aligned routes. Volatility remains the tax you pay for this optionality.
•Execution over ideology. We favor an American, ex-China REE supply chain—full stop. A key reason for the launch of REEx. But capital still demands milestones: financing closes, plant commissioning, binding offtakes, and deliver-to-spec performance.
Bottom line
We’ve entered the my leverage is bigger than yours " phase of the dispute—fun for headlines, fatal for sloppy portfolios. Stay American in strategy, forensic in tactics. Track the paperwork, trade the prints, and leave the bravado to the politicians.
The following media sources were used for references for this piece: Bloomberg (opens in a new tab), Reuters (opens in a new tab) and The Wall Street Journal (opens in a new tab) in addition to Rare Earth Exchanges.
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