Highlights

• MP Materials stopped sending NdPr oxide feedstock to China, causing prices to hit 632,000 yuan/t (~$88/kg).
• In July, a Department of Defense deal introduced a $110/kg NdPr price floor, formalizing a domestic refining strategy.
• Policy changes and market cycles are driving transformations in the rare earth supply chain.

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According to a Reuters (opens in a new tab) account NdPr oxide ripped to 632,000 yuan/t (~$88/kg)—a two-year high—after MP Materials stopped sending feedstock to China. That tracks with customs data and price prints, and it matters: MP supplied an estimated 7–9% of China’s NdPr oxide output via concentrate flows, a non-trivial bite.

Landing with a Thud (Solid Evidence)

• MP halted China shipments: Yes—first in April amid tariff/licensing friction, then reinforced by the July DoD deal that introduced a $110/kg NdPr price floor and aligned MP to refine domestically. Cause and timing are key: the stoppage began before the July pact; the deal formalizes direction of travel.
• Magnet flows snapped back: China’s July magnet exports hit a six-month high; exports to the U.S. jumped to 619t (+75.5% m/m). Policy toggles still dominate this tape.

The Grey Paint (tighten the framing)

• “Deal stipulates halt” vs. chronology: The recent article leans causal—deal → halt—but MP had already paused exports in April. Call the deal a codifier, not the trigger. Precision matters for investors.
• “Auto plants shut” claim: There were supplier line stoppages and real disruption risks in June, but the threat of mass shutdowns faded as licenses trickled out and July flows improved. Keep this context so readers don’t over-index on worst-case framing.

The House View (spot the angle)

• West-ex-China cheer: The piece implies higher prices will “boost prospects” outside China. Likely true near-term—especially with a U.S. price floor—but don’t forget demand seasonality (EVs, turbines, electronics) also lifted prices. Policy + cycle, not policy alone.

Investor checklist (receipts, not vibes)

• Timeline discipline: Treat April’s pause and July’s pact as separate events; the durability of the rally hinges on sustained U.S. refining/magnet ramp and continued license issuance abroad.
• Watch the prints: Track August/September magnet exports and NdPr quotes vs. the $110/kg floor. Price floors reshape incentives—but they don’t repeal cycles.
• Winners on wobble: Ex-China miners, separators, and U.S. magnet makers gain optionality in every policy squall—but only those with financing, commissioning progress, and binding offtakes turn optionality into cash flow. (Looking at you, execution risk.)

Bottom line

Reuters gets the facts right on price and flow. Where it stretches, it’s in implying causality and leaning into shutdown drama. Keep the nuance: this rally is policy-led, cycle-assisted, and hostage to execution.

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