Highlights

• China controls over 85% of rare earth refining capacity, leaving U.S. and EU vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.
• Emerging deposits in Greenland, Australia, and North America could potentially reshape global rare earth dynamics.
• Future supply chain resilience depends on balanced interdependence, recycling, and green refining technologies.

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Arttu Hyyryläinen (opens in a new tab) of the Lappeenranta–Lahti University of Technology (LUT), Finland (opens in a new tab), authored “Rare Earth Metals as Part of a Global Supply Chain: A Literature Review and Industry Macro-Risk Analysis” (Bachelor’s Thesis, 2025) under the supervision of Postdoctoral Researcher Müge Tetik (opens in a new tab). The study provides one of the clearest macro-level portraits yet of how the world’s rare earth supply chains—crucial for green energy and defense technologies—are shaped by policy risk, geographic concentration, and market imbalance between the United States, European Union, and China.

Study Summary

Hyyryläinen’s analysis, translated from Finnish to English, reveals a known reality for the Rare Earth Exchanges community: China dominates every stage of the rare earth value chain—holding roughly 50% of reserves, 70% of mine production, and over 85% of refining capacity. In contrast, the U.S. and EU remain heavily import-dependent, despite policy efforts to rebuild domestic capacity. The thesis highlights how this imbalance leaves Western economies vulnerable to regulatory shocks, as seen in the 2010 rare earth crisis and again during the 2024–2025 U.S.–China trade conflict.

Using global datasets from the U.S. Geological Survey and Liu et al. (2023), Hyyryläinen identifies key undeveloped deposits in Greenland, Australia, and North America that could reshape future supply dynamics. The study finds that Greenland’s Tanbreez and Kvanefjeld projects hold some of the world’s largest neodymium and dysprosium reserves—both critical for high-performance magnets used in electric vehicles and wind turbines. The author introduces a new analytical metric, the REE-to-mineral ratio, to assess the economic significance of these deposits beyond raw tonnage, accounting for extraction feasibility and environmental impact.

Implications

For readers outside the mining world, the message is clear: rare earths are not rare in geology but rare in processing and policy tolerance. China’s lenient environmental regulations and centralized state control have enabled it to build near-monopoly status, while the West—despite ample reserves—faces regulatory, environmental, and political bottlenecks that stall refining projects.

Hyyryläinen argues that future resilience will depend not just on new mines but on balanced interdependence, where nations specialize across the value chain rather than aiming for autarky. An important point REEx has sought to raise in our extensive reporting.  Why? The tendency toward nationalism with nation-specific, almost haphazard tariffs is likely not the most appropriate pathway toward critical mineral and rare earth element supply chain resilience. 

Recycling and green refining methods could become the next competitive frontier if made economically viable.

Limitations

The study acknowledges limits in data completeness, especially for undeclared reserves and deposit composition. Many figures rely on extrapolated datasets from secondary sources such as the USGS and Liu et al. (2023). The analysis also focuses on macro-risks, meaning that localized factors such as labor markets or environmental protests were outside its scope.

Conclusion

Hyyryläinen’s research provides a sobering yet practical takeaway: while the U.S. and EU can never fully decouple from China’s dominance in rare earths, they can strengthen supply security by diversifying sourcing, improving recycling, and investing in high-grade, low-impact refining. The thesis positions Finland and Greenland as potential gateways to a more balanced global rare-earth economy—and underscores that the race for rare-earth resilience is ultimately a race for smarter, cleaner technology policy.

Citation: Hyyryläinen, A. (2025). Rare Earth Metals as Part of a Global Supply Chain: A Literature Review and Industry Macro-Risk Analysis. Bachelor’s Thesis, Lappeenranta–Lahti University of Technology (LUT), Finland.

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