Highlights

• Russia possesses significant rare earth reserves but remains a minor global producer due to fragmented processing chains, limited refining expertise, and high investment risk.
• The country's domestic demand doesn't align with global magnet-grade trends (NdFeB, Dy, Tb), creating a mismatch between production capabilities and market needs.
• Achieving competitiveness requires state-backed integration from mine to magnet, but execution faces challenges including capital mobilization, technology deployment, and geopolitical constraints.

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In “Current trends and prospects in Russia’s rare earth metals industry” (2025), Lyudmila A. Mochalova (opens in a new tab) and Vladimir N. Podkorytov of Ural State Mining University (opens in a new tab) (Ekaterinburg, Russia), writing in the URFU Journal Portal, conclude that while Russia holds significant rare earth reserves, it remains a minor player in global production. The authors say the bottleneck isn’t just geology; it’s the midstream—fragmented processing chains, limited refining know-how, and high investment risk—plus a domestic demand mix that doesn’t match the world’s magnet-grade growth (NdFeB/Dy/Tb).

Findings

Russia has the rocks, but not the refineries.

Deposits are unevenly distributed, and the country’s mining-to-magnet chain is broken into pieces, making scale and consistency hard.

Price swings bite.

Volatile global prices and tech shifts increase project risk, making financing expensive or hesitant.

Home demand ≠ export reality.

Domestic consumption patterns trail global magnet and EV trends, leaving a mismatch between what Russia can make and what the market wants.

Policy matters.

Authors recommend state-backed, integrated value chains—from mine to metals to magnet alloys—to achieve “technological sovereignty.”

Why Investors Should Care: The Contender’s Dilemma

If Russia can bundle feedstock + processing + offtake, it could rise from reserve holder to reliable supplier—especially for Europe and Asia seeking non-China options. But the lift is heavy: it requires capex, process IP, environmental compliance, and guaranteed end-market pull (EVs, wind, defense). In other words, midstream mastery (separation, refining, alloying) is the prize—and the price.

Experts at Ural State Mining University—Promise but…

Signals vs. Noise: What’s Solid, What’s Speculative

Solid: Clear-eyed diagnosis of structural gaps (processing fragmentation, price risk, demand mismatch) and a realistic call for integrated, policy-enabled build-out.

Speculative: The pace at which Russia can mobilize capital, deploy best-available separation tech, and secure stable export channels under sanction-tinged geopolitics. The paper is policy-forward by design; execution risk remains high.

Limitations—Read Before Leaping

• Desk research bias: The study synthesizes USGS and Russian state reports, with limited plant-level operating data.
• Market opacity: Geopolitical constraints and sanctions can distort trade flows, pricing, and financing in ways the paper cannot model.
• Technology readiness: Bridging from academic flowsheets to continuous, commercial SX/IX and magnet alloying is a multi-year, capital-intensive process.

Bottom Line

Mochalova and Podkorytov give a sober roadmap: Russia’s rare earth future hinges on midstream integration and demand alignment. For global buyers, watch for bankable projects that pair deposits with permitted separation capacity, magnet partnerships, and take-or-pay offtakes. Until then, Russia is potential, not a pivot.

Citation: Mochalova, L. A., & Podkorytov, V. N. (2025). Current trends and prospects in Russia’s rare earth metals industry. URFU Journal Portal. https://doi.org/10.15826/recon.2025.11.3.016 (opens in a new tab)

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