Highlights

• The global critical minerals market has transformed from resource-based to control-based, with value determined by who controls the path from mine to market rather than reserves underground.
• China dominates 60–90% of refining capacity while the US deploys strategic tools like the $12B Project Vault; Africa and Latin America demand local processing and greater downstream value.
• Success now depends on geopolitical alignment and corridor integration rather than geology, as governments become price-setters and capital flows to compliant, ESG-aligned supply chains.

A new January–February 2026 report (opens in a new tab) from NM Advisory’s Critical Chains Intelligence Desk argues that the global critical minerals market has undergone a quiet but profound transformation: value is no longer set by what lies underground, but by who controls the path from mine to market.

Drawing on data from the IEA, USGS, and global deal flows, the report finds China still dominates 60–90% of refining across key minerals, while the United States and its allies are shifting from rhetoric to intervention—deploying stockpiles, financing, and policy tools such as the proposed $12 billion “Project Vault” to reshape supply chains. Meanwhile, Africa and Latin America are asserting greater control, demanding local processing, tighter export rules, and a larger share of downstream value.

Key Finding: From Commodity to Geopolitical Asset

The report’s central insight is deceptively simple: minerals are no longer commodities; they are geopolitical assets. A “corridor” lens—tracking minerals from pit to port to processing—reveals where power truly resides. It is not at the mine, but in refining hubs, logistics routes, and political alignment. Projects embedded in Western-backed corridors or compliant with ESG and regulatory frameworks are increasingly treated as premium assets. Others risk being discounted, delayed, or rendered irrelevant.

This has consequences. Markets that once behaved cyclically now resemble policy-driven systems. Governments are becoming price-setters. Capital is flowing not just to the best deposits, but to the safest jurisdictions and most aligned supply chains. Latin America is capturing the lion’s share of mining investment; Africa is renegotiating its role; China retains its grip on the midstream.

Implications

Yet the emerging order is unsettled. Western efforts to “de-risk” may simply reconfigure dependency rather than eliminate it. ESG standards, now a gatekeeper to capital, risk becoming tools of exclusion as much as accountability.

The conclusion is stark: in the coming decade, success in critical minerals will depend less on geology than on alignment—of corridors, capital and power.