Highlights

• Announced 2030 NdFeB magnet capacity jumped >50% in one quarter, but nameplate capacity differs vastly from qualified, sellable tonnage—early ramps typically reach only 30-50% of capacity for 12-24 months.
• Five critical assumptions to challenge:
  • Announced capacity isn't real.
  • Not all tonnage meets auto-grade specs.
  • Raw materials (especially Dy/Tb) will tighten.
  • Skilled talent is scarce ex-China.
  • Policy hurdles delay revenue by 2+ years.
• Apply a 50-70% haircut to late-decade capacity announcements until feedstock, alloying capacity, talent, and customer qualifications are verified—credibility lies with producers already shipping, not greenfield promises.

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A Chart Says “Boom.” Physics Says “Prove It.”

The magnet truism: you’re not making at scale until you’re making at scale. Adamas Intelligence’s Magnet Factory Database & Outlook shows a >50% jump in announced 2030 NdFeB magnet capacity in one quarter. That fits the post–China export-control rush to build ex-China supply. But nameplate bars are not the same as qualified, sellable tonnage. Our REEx Magnet Rankings show only a short list outside China actually shipping sintered NdFeB at scale—and real ramps are slow, jagged, and cash-hungry.

Five assumptions to challenge

1. Announced = real. Most 2028–2030 volumes are aspirational. Early sintered NdFeB ramps typically reach 30–50% of nameplate for 12–24 months while yields, coercivity and uniformity are tuned. Capex and working capital often slip.
2. All tonnage is equal. Auto-grade magnets require tight B–H curves, temperature stability and low variance. Many can press and sinter; far fewer pass Tier-1 PPAP/IMDS at volume.
3. Materials will appear. NdPr tightens as factories multiply. True choke points are Dy/Tb for high-temp grades and metal/alloy capacity (strip-casting, HDDR, jet-milling). Without Dy/Tb lock-ins, “high-spec capacity” is a spreadsheet artifact.
4. Talent is abundant. Ex-China, seasoned process metallurgists and QA engineers for sintered NdFeB are scarce. Yields lag and scrap balloons without them.
5. Policy won’t bite. Local-content rules, export licenses, IP limits, tariffs, and power pricing—plus 12–24-month qualification cycles—mean 2027–2028 “capacity” may not generate revenue until 2029–2030.

What Adamas gets right—and what users must verify

Factory-level tracking, interviews, and site-visit notes are valuable—especially when mapped to rare-earth demand by factory/company/country. Use them, but interrogate every entry:

• Is the capacity sintered or bonded?
• What share is automotive-qualified?
• Who supplies NdPr metal and Dy/Tb?
• What is the strip-cast/HDDR footprint and alloying depth?

Our REEx rankings corroborate a real growth wave—but 2026–2028 credibility lies with producers already shipping and adding parallel lines, not greenfields promising hero ramps.

REEx take—From hype curve to yield curve.

A multipolar magnet world is coming. The scoreboard is an effective, qualified output, not press releases. Investors and OEMs should apply a 50–70% haircut to late-decade announcements until feedstock, alloying capacity, talent, energy contracts, and customer qualifications are verified.

Cross-check: REEx Magnet Rankings Database (operating status, grades, customers) + Adamas factory-level outlook = the clearest read on who wins the 2027–2030 window.

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