Highlights

• China's MOFCOM announces strict export licensing rules for tungsten, antimony, and silver (2026-2027), requiring high credit thresholds and proof of substantial 2022-2024 export volumes—effectively limiting access to state-favored traders.
• China controls 80% of global tungsten supply; even a 13.75% export drop (Jan-Sept 2025) significantly impacts critical industries including defense, semiconductors, and aerospace worldwide.
• The policy, framed as environmental protection, continues Beijing's strategic pattern of using critical mineral export controls as geopolitical leverage while Western alternative supply chains remain underdeveloped.

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China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) has once again rewritten the playbook for global resource control, announcing new export rules for tungsten, antimony, and silver covering 2026–2027. The directive, framed under the Foreign Trade Law and presented as an environmental and resource-protection measure, effectively raises the bar for companies seeking export licenses.

To qualify, traders must meet credit thresholds and prove substantial prior export volumes between 2022 and 2024. The subtext? Only China’s largest and most compliant players—those already embedded in the state trading system—will retain meaningful access to global buyers. This continues Beijing’s pattern of strategic throttling, where "environmental protection" doubles as industrial policy.

The Numbers Behind the Narrative

From January to September 2025, China’s tungsten exports fell 13.75% year-on-year to roughly 12,000 tons, according to Chinatungsten Online (opens in a new tab). That may sound modest—but given China’s 80% global supply share, even a small drop reverberates across the supply chain. Tungsten isn’t just for filaments and alloys; it’s critical in defense, semiconductors, and aerospace.

China’s export tightening isn’t new—it’s the rhythm of a long strategic dance. In 2023, MOFCOM similarly restricted exports of gallium and germanium, citing resource security while reminding the West who controls the chokepoints. This latest move broadens the pattern: rare metals are being reclassified from commodities to leverage instruments.

What’s Real, What’s Spin

Factually, the Global Times repor (opens in a new tab)t aligns with official data: China does dominate tungsten production, and the new MOFCOM notice follows legal precedent. But the rhetoric—"protecting resources and the environment"—rings familiar as policy cover for supply-chain leverage. There’s no evidence that these new quotas are primarily ecological; rather, they appear designed to reward state-favored exporters and tighten pricing control heading into 2026.

The speculative layer is subtler: claims that the policy serves sustainability mask the strategic calibration of scarcity. By managing export volume and licensing, Beijing strengthens its grip just as Western supply-chain initiatives—from MP Materials to Arafura—begin to mature. This is chess, not conservation.

Why It Matters

For investors, this is another reminder that critical minerals are geopolitical currencies, not simple tradables. China’s regulatory cadence now dictates global price discovery for metals underpinning defense and green technologies. Until new refining capacity in North America, Europe, and Australia breaks ground, these MOFCOM rules effectively set the tempo of Western industrial policy.

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