Highlights

• China controls approximately 70% of rare earth mining and approximately 90% of processing, creating strategic vulnerabilities for trillion-dollar industries like electric vehicles (EVs) and defense despite the market's small size.
• Reliable rare earth data remains murky, with prices swinging wildly and per-element figures often representing educated guesses rather than verified facts.
• Industry experts warn against knee-jerk policies, urging smarter investments in diverse mines, refineries, and recycling over hype-driven projects that could fail and spook investors.

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When a recent Substack piece (opens in a new tab) by Amanda van Dyke declares rare earths “both a win and a headache,” it captures the zeitgeist of 2025’s critical-minerals scramble. Her thesis is simple: at last the world appreciates these once-obscure metals as linchpins of modern economies, but the newfound hype comes with dangerous simplifications. As governments and media frame rare earths as a single “China problem,” the nuance of 17 distinct elements gets lost – and with it, the smart solutions we desperately need.

What Rings True Amid the Hype

Van Dyke is spot on about the positives. Global leaders are indeed waking up to the mineral imperative. From Washington to Brussels, rare earth elements – key for EV motors, wind turbines, and missiles – have leapt from obscure trade journals to center stage. This attention is translating into action: billions are flowing into new mines and processing plants outside China, finally prioritizing supply-chain resilience over rock-bottom prices.

And she’s right that REEs aren’t a monolith. Neodymium, terbium, dysprosium – each plays a unique role and commands a unique price. Recognizing that complexity is crucial. The author accurately highlights that the entire rare earth market (worth perhaps $5–12 billion) is a sliver of the $10 trillion global commodities pie, yet it underpins trillion-dollar industries. A shortage of just a few hundred tons of magnet metals could stall hundreds of billions in EVs and wind farms. In short, small market, huge stakes – a core truth of the rare earth world.

Where the Data Stays Foggy

Not everything in the piece is crystal clear. In the Substack, Van Dyke dives into numbers to quantify “what rare earths are really worth,” and here the fog of data rolls in. She laments – correctly – that China treats detailed REE figures as state secrets, and Western estimates rely on patchy info. We know 2024 mine output globally was about 390,000 tons (opens in a new tab), and that China still produces the lion’s share. But breaking that down by element?

That’s where even experts play guessing games. The Substack’s per-element market values illustrate this uncertainty: for example, it pegs samarium’s tiny 2024 output (700 tons) as a whopping $2.1 billion market – an eye-popping figure out of step with typical prices. Scandium’s 5 ton output is valued at $635 million, implying a staggering ~$127,000 per kg, far above known market rates. These anomalies don’t mean the author is wrong; rather they underscore her point: reliable data in the rare earth realm are painfully hard to pin down. Prices can yo-yo 50% year to year on speculation or policy moves.

So while the piece’s numerical bravado grabs attention, savvy readers should treat those granular figures as educated guesses, not gospel. The bigger picture stands: China’s dominance and opaque reporting make transparency tough, and oversimplifying complex supply metrics (like treating all REEs as uniformly scarce) can mislead decisions. Van Dyke’s warning about “knee-jerk” solutions – such as throwing money at fanciful projects or overhyping a dysprosium crisis – is grounded in experience. We’ve seen hype cycles before (remember the 2010 REE bubble that went bust?), and the fallout from bad data or bad bets can scare off the very investors the sector needs.

Why It Matters for Investors and Industry

This hype-versus-reality tension has real consequences. For investors and supply-chain planners, the rare earths narrative is at a crossroads. On one hand, the heightened alarm over China’s rare earth grip (exacerbated by Beijing’s 2025 export curbs on several heavy REEs) is spurring democracies to build their own supply chains.

That’s a win: new Western processing plants and mines (from California to Australia) are coming online, aiming to chip away at China’s 90% stranglehold. On the other hand, oversimplified narratives can misdirect money. Not every deposit is viable, not every refinery will succeed – and disillusionment is a risk if projects fueled by hype fail to deliver. Van Dyke’s piece is a timely reminder that due diligence matters.

Investors are advised to dig into the details: Which specific rare earths does a company produce? Does a “magnet metals” venture have the tech to actually separate praseodymium from neodymium at scale and at acceptable economics? How realistic are those rosy demand projections?

By separating fact from fiction, the rare earth industry can avoid knee-jerk mistakes (and expensive white elephants) and instead channel the current enthusiasm into sustainable progress. In a world racing toward EVs and renewable energy, we simply can’t afford to get this wrong. The takeaway for industry strategists is clear: embrace the momentum of this rare earths rush, but temper it with cold, hard facts and technical savvy.

REEx Take

Rare Earth Exchanges finds Van Dyke’s core insights firmly on the mark. Yes, the global scramble for rare earth elements is overdue and strategically vital, and yes, it’s being clouded by one-size-fits-all storylines. We validate her big-picture facts – China’s continued dominance, the tiny market with outsized influence, the urgent need for smarter supply-chain investment – while noting that some of her finer numbers highlight just how imprecise rare earth data can be.

Crucially, this Substack entry does what good industry analysis should: it calls out oversimplified hype and urges nuance. In an arena where policy and perception can shift faster than science, such clarity is refreshing. The rare earth sector will be defined in the coming years by those who can marry hype with reality – turning political will and investor interest into projects that actually work.

The real “worth” of rare earths, in the end, will hinge on informed action over easy headlines. And as this piece rightly implies, keeping journalists and policymakers honest about the complexities is half the battle in securing a resilient supply chain.

See Amanda’s Substack (opens in a new tab).

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