Highlights

• Strategic affairs expert warns at COP30 that China's control of 60% of global REE mining and 90% of refining creates dangerous dependence for clean-energy transition.
• China's 2023-2025 export restrictions now cover nearly all 17 rare earths, with new licensing requirements for products containing just 0.1% Chinese-origin critical minerals.
• Climate diplomacy is finally acknowledging that China's mineral dominance represents a geopolitical bottleneck that could shape the pace and politics of global decarbonization.

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A new ANI report (opens in a new tab) from COP30 in Belém, Brazil, puts China’s rare earth dominance back under the global spotlight. Strategic affairs scholar Jagannath Panda warns that the world’s clean-energy transition cannot hinge on materials overwhelmingly controlled by “a single authoritarian state.” It’s a dramatic quote—one tailor-made for headlines—but also one grounded in arithmetic: China controls ~60% of global REE mine output and ~90% of separation and refining.

Investors already know this, but COP30 delegates hearing it aloud—on climate’s biggest stage—is a notable shift. Rare earths have graduated from obscure inputs to geopolitical oxygen.

When Climate Diplomacy Meets Extraction Geopolitics

Panda argues that China’s mineral dominance is not organic market evolution but the product of long-term CPC strategy: securing mining zones, controlling refining technologies, and deploying export restrictions as leverage. This framing is consistent with known policy patterns—including China’s 2023–2025 tightening of REE export controls, technology restrictions, and case-by-case licensing for AI, semiconductor, and military-linked materials.

Where the article edges into speculation is the claim that Beijing aims to“weaponize the pace of global decarbonization.” While China has shown willingness to use export controls strategically, direct intent is difficult to prove without official statements. The underlying dynamics, however, remain accurate: China controls the midstream, and midstream is power.

Tibet: Resource Frontier or Rhetorical Device?

The article highlights the Tibetan Plateau as a major extraction frontier for lithium, copper, uranium, and heavy rare earths. While Tibet holds significant mineral deposits, the portrayal of a vast new mining surge is exaggerated. Large-scale Tibetan REE production has not begun, and heavy rare earths remain concentrated primarily in southern China’s ion-adsorption clays—not high-altitude plateaus.

Still, the concern about environmental fragility—glacier melt, river instability, permafrost loss—is valid, and any future extraction there would be geopolitically sensitive.

Export Controls: The Real Story Investors Care About

The strongest factual component of the ANI report concerns China’s tightening export regime:

• Five new REE metals added to control lists in 2025
• Nearly all 17 REEs are now under enhanced scrutiny
• Dozens of refining technologies are restricted
• Products with 0.1% Chinese-origin critical minerals need approval

These moves do create structural power—especially in magnets, EV drivetrains, and defense systems. That’s not hype. That’s the market.

The Rare Earth Exchanges Verdict

The ANI report contains accurate data, a geopolitically consistent narrative, and some heightened language around Tibet and intent—but no outright misinformation. Its importance lies in timing: climate diplomacy is finally acknowledging that China’s mineral dominance is a bottleneck that could shape the pace—and politics—of global decarbonization.

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