Highlights

• The G-20 is addressing critical minerals as a first-tier geopolitical issue, mainly due to China's dominance in heavy rare earth elements.
• China has recently imposed licensing curbs on dysprosium and terbium.
• Western nations aim to establish HREE supply chains by 2026.
• China currently refines over 90% of global rare earths and produces 94% of permanent magnets.
• China controls Myanmar's Kachin State feedstock.
• The West needs to overhaul the entire HREE pipeline—from geology to chemistry to industrial finance—within a decade to gain supply chain independence, despite new investments and alliances.

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Could a remarkable shift be unfolding? For the first time, the G-20 is treating critical minerals as a first-tier geopolitical issue, not a footnote. OilPrice.com suggests so. A recent entry accurately describes the diplomatic kabuki—leaders calling for supply chain “resilience” while scrupulously avoiding naming the one country everyone is worried about.

Yes, beneath the soft language sits a hard truth: China’s chokehold on heavy rare earth elements (HREEs) triggered the scramble, and the G-20 knows it. Beijing’s licensing curbs on dysprosium and terbium this year sent shockwaves through missile manufacturers, EV makers, and turbine suppliers. Price spikes were real. Stockpiles thinned. Some contractors openly warned of missed deliveries. These details in the article hold up and reflect industry reality.

The “Race to 2026” Narrative—Ambition Meets Arithmetic

The piece highlights Western sprints:

• U.S. minority stakes in domestic rare earth companies
• MP Materials and Aclara are racing to launch heavy rare earth separation
• Europeis funding magnet plants to reduce exposure

These moves are real, increasingly urgent, and directionally correct. But here is where nuance matters. Oilprice calls it a “sprint.” Rare Earth Exchanges calls it a slow-motion catch-up.  Why? For one, because Beijing isn’t standing still. It still refines 90%+ of global rare earths, produces 94% of permanent magnets, and maintains direct or indirect influence over upstream HREE supply—especially Myanmar’s Kachin State, ranked #1 globally on the Rare Earth Exchanges Heavy Rare Earth Project Rankings.

Oilprice doesn’t mention Kachin, which is a material omission. China’s control over border flows and refinery networks means that any Western plan must contend with the reality that heavy rare earth feedstock remains tied to unstable, conflict-driven supply.

A World Waking Up—But Still Behind the Curve

The article rightly notes that the G-20 declaration is voluntary, nonbinding, and timid. It will not force China to loosen its grip, nor build the missing midstream infrastructure the West desperately needs.

Where the piece is strongest

Showing how rare earths have moved from mining conference jargon to the global center stage alongside Ukraine, Gaza, and trade wars.

Where it falls short

Failing to acknowledge how deep the challenge runs.

Conclusion

Even with new investment, new alliances, and new attention, the supply chain math remains unforgiving:

If the world wants a non-Chinese heavy rare earth pipeline, it must reinvent everything—from geology to chemistry to industrial finance—in under a decade. A tall order. But, as investors know, tall orders often produce tall returns.

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