Highlights

• MP Materials and Lynas anchor ex-China production, targeting approximately 15% of global NdPr oxides by 2026, though allied magnet share remains under 10% compared to China's 85-90% dominance.
• Heavy rare earths (Dy, Tb) are the critical bottlenecks, with China controlling 91% of the supply, and Western projects are unable to achieve independence before 2028, despite backing from the Pentagon.
• A regional glut of light oxides and magnets may occur by 2027-2028 as Vulcan, Neo, and other companies increase capacity, risking Chinese dumping unless policymakers implement price floors and offtake protections.

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President Donald Trump now promises the U.S. will have “more rare earth batteries than it knows what to do with by next year.” That makes for a punchy soundbite—but the underlying supply chains are messier.

Ex-China rare earth production is climbing: Lynas Rare Earths (opens in a new tab) (LYSCF) remains the largest non-Chinese separator, at 7 ktpa of NdPr-equivalent, now pushing toward ~10–12 ktpa NdPr-equivalent capacity, while MP Materials (opens in a new tab) (MP: NYSE) is ramping NdPr separation at Mountain Pass and building a “10X” magnet facility backed by a 10-year Pentagon price floor and offtake for 100% of output.  MP Materials is well positioned to be the predominant rare earth player in America.

Note in the article below, Rare Earth Exchanges presents a sampling of unfolding activity involving the race to build an ex-China rare earth element supply chain. See Rare Earth Exchanges rankings for a list of more companies involved.

But “next year” (2026) is still a system in construction, not a glut of finished magnets and batteries. Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) expects ex-China refined oxides to inch into the mid-teens percent of global supply and ex-China magnets to remain in the mid–single digits over the next 12 months—real progress, not the promised flood.

Anchor Tenants: Lynas, MP, and the 12-Month Picture

Lynas today anchors ex-China separation from Mt Weld into Malaysia, targeting 10.5–12 ktpa NdPr capacity by decade’s end, with expanded heavy rare earth (HREE) capability under its “Towards 2030” strategy.

MP Materials has become America’s flagship mine-to-magnet play:

• $400M Pentagon equity stake, giving DoD ~15% ownership and making MP a declared national-security asset.
• $1B loan commitment from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs for the 10X magnet facility.
• $150M DoD loan to bolt heavy REE separation onto Mountain Pass.
• $500M Apple magnet & recycling partnership, focused on recycled NdFeB magnets from Fort Worth and Mountain Pass.

By 12 months, REEx expects:

• Ex-China NdPr oxides: from today’s low-teens percent to perhaps ~15% of global supply if Lynas and MP execute.
• Ex-China magnets: MP’s early output plus Japanese/European lines may nudge allied magnet share toward about 7–8%, still dwarfed by China’s about 85–90%.

New Magnet Muscle: Vulcan, Neo, eVAC, USA Rare Earth

The reaction over 24–36 months is downstream. Vulcan Elements and ReElement just locked a $1.4B public-private package—$620M DoD loan, $50M Commerce incentives, $80M OSC loan for ReElement, plus private capital—to build a 10,000 tpa NdFeB magnet facility in the U.S.  Can ReElement’s separation technology scale—insiders in the industry ponder this very question.

Across the Atlantic, Neo Performance Materials (opens in a new tab) (NEO.TO) has opened a state-of-the-art magnet factory in Narva, Estonia, designed as a flagship ex-China hub for EV and wind markets.

Neo Performance Materials has two main operations in Estonia: a rare earth processing plant in Sillamäe and the aforementioned facility in Narva, which was recently opened in September 2025.

The Narva plant is the first facility in Europe to mass-produce rare earth magnets for electric vehicle motors and wind turbines, producing 2,000 tonnes per year initially. The Sillamäe facility is the only rare earth separation and processing plant in the European Union. 

The DoD-backed e-VAC Magnetics (owned by Germany’s Vacuumschmelze (opens in a new tab) line in South Carolina and Permag/Electron Energy Corporation’s aggressive SmCo expansion in Pennsylvania add U.S. magnet muscle, albeit from a small base.

Energy Fuels (opens in a new tab) (UUUU) is a serious emerging player in the refining business (uranium), but the company faces a feedstock access challenge. Energy Fuels is ramping up rare-earth refining, but its projected output over the next three years remains modest and carries significant uncertainty.

The company has begun commercial production of light rare earth oxides (NdPr) at its White Mesa Mill, with Phase 1 separation capacity designed for roughly 850–1,000 tpa, though actual 2025 output will likely be several hundred tonnes.

Heavy rare earth production (Dy, Tb, Sm) remains in pilot phase, with Energy Fuels targeting initial commercial HREE output as early as Q4 2026, though this is aspirational.

By 2027, assuming feedstock availability and smooth commissioning, Energy Fuels could potentially reach ~800–1,200 tpa of NdPr and ~200–500 tpa of heavy rare earth oxides, supported by feed from the Donald Project in Australia.

But execution risk remains high across feedstock, yields, technology, and downstream offtake, making Energy Fuels a developing—but not yet large-scale—refined rare earth producer.

USA Rare Earth (acquired Less Common Metals) still advertises a mine-to-magnet model (Round Top + Oklahoma), but its timelines have slipped more than once—exactly the sort of execution risk REEx has flagged. The separation and refining technology is not yet proven at scale.

REEx 24-month view (late 2027): announced projects could lift ex-China magnet capacity into the future. Actual production will depend on commissioning, yields, and whether offtake contracts survive the next price cycle.

Heavy Rare Earths: Thin Ice Under Bold Narratives

The article argues that U.S. ambitions to achieve heavy rare earth (HREE) independence within 24–36 months are fundamentally at odds with the underlying geology and math.

China controls over 91% of global HREE supply today and is expected to retain more than 90% share through 2030, even as Western projects advance. MP Materials’ planned 200 t/y of SEG-derived heavies, constrained by Mountain Pass’s low Dy/Tb content, barely dents the projected demand of roughly 1,650 t/y dysprosium oxide by 2030 and contributes to a forecast 2,920-ton dysprosium deficit by 2035.

Deals in Brazil, Malaysia, and Canada, plus hoped-for ionic clay scaling and recycling, are framed as optimistic narratives rather than hard solutions, leaving the core bottleneck—dysprosium and terbium for high-temperature magnets—unresolved for years and making “independence” in the near term more political slogan than physical reality.

The heavy side—Dy, Tb and friends—is still the Achilles’ heel.

• Lynas is expanding what is effectively the only industrial-scale HREE separation platform outside China, plus a still-uncertain Texas project. Lynas start “quietly”  exporting heavies to Japan’s Sogjitz.
• MP Materials has a $150M Pentagon loan to add heavy separation and talks up 200 t of SEG (Sm–Eu–Gd) and HREE capabilities—but REEx contacts warn that both feedstock and offtake for heavies remain challenging. MP Materials remains upbeat.
• Aclara will invest $277M in Louisiana to build the first U.S. heavy rare earth separation facility, targeting completion by 2027–28. Aclara has substantial corporate ownership (mining companies) in Latin America.
• Brazilian Rare Earths + Carester have a 10-year deal for up to 150 tpa Dy/Tb-equivalent concentrate, anchoring a Camaçari-based separation hub tied into French and Japanese demand.
• DTEC MMT is pushing an ionic-clay-to-metal route from Malaysia into the U.S., aiming for 300 tpa of mixed lights+heavies by 2027.
• Caldera’s Missouri Heavy Rare Earths—hiding in plain sight. See REEx YouTube interview (opens in a new tab).

REEx 36-month view (2028): even if every project above hits its marks, non-Chinese heavy separation may still sit below 20% of global capacity. That’s better than today’s near-monopoly, but nowhere near “independence.”

Mine-to-Magnet Dreams Meet the Hidden Hands

Beyond Lynas and MP, the ex-China web thickens:

• Pensana + Vacuumschmelze (VAC/e-VAC) plan a U.S. mine-to-magnet chain, scaling VAC’s magnet output from 2,000 tpa toward 12,000 tpa.
• Solvay’s alliances withPermag and Less Common Metals stitch European chemistry into U.S. and UKmagnet chains.

As REEx has documented, much of the real power still sits with traders like Traxys, Glencore and Thyssenkrupp, plus quieter “storefronts” that re-route Chinese magnets and alloys through Western intermediaries.

The market is already bifurcating into a China-centric price curve and a premium ex-China curve—but flows still bleed across via this shadowy network. Independence will be partial as long as trading desks can arbitrage the gap.

Glut, Dumping, and the One-Shot Window for Industrial Policy

Trump’s “more magnets than we know what to do with” line will likely be directionally right—but temporally wrong. Over the next 12 months, the ex-China system remains tight and subsidy-dependent.

By 24–36 months, REEx sees a real risk of regional gluts in light oxides and magnets as MP’s 10X facility, Vulcan’s 10 ktpa plant, Neo’s Estonia line, Pensana/VAC, USA Rare Earth, and others converge on a still-fragmented demand base. A challenge: those not subsidized may find themselves in trouble.

That’s where China’s advantage returns: Beijing can dump oxides and magnets well below Western cost curves, undercutting fragile new entrants.

The DoD’s NdPr price floor and MP offtake are one answer, but they’re not a full industrial policy. Without broader, rules-based tools—price floors, strategic stockpiles, tariff backstops, multi-decade offtakes and explicit “ally-only” value chains—the ex-China build-out risks replaying the Molycorp saga at a larger scale.

REEx’s view is blunt

A glut is likely coming and we should welcome it—if policymakers lock in protections before the dumping starts. The goal is not to beat China on cost, but to survive the next down-cycle with a functional allied supply chain still standing.

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