Highlights

• Cerium oxide prices in Baotou reached 11,250 yuan/ton in October 2025, up 56.3% year-on-year—the largest gain among all 46 monitored industrial products.
• While 7 of 9 tracked rare earth products declined month-on-month, 8 showed year-on-year increases, confirming China's upstream pricing leverage remains intact.
• The mixed signals underscore challenges for Western buyers building ex-China supply chains, as they continue benchmarking against China's policy-sensitive pricing system.

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Fresh data out of Baotou, China’s flagship rare earth hub, shows a market sending mixed but important signals to global buyers. According to Baotou’s industry bureau, October 2025 brought broad month-on-month price softness across industrial commodities, yet rare earth cerium oxide quietly surged to a new high.

Out of 46 monitored industrial products, 30 saw price declines in October — including rare earth carbonate and pig iron — while 15, such as cerium oxide, coke, A00 aluminum, and monocrystalline silicon, posted gains. Lanthanum metal stayed flat. Year-on-year, the picture flips: 21 products, including rare earth carbonate and key energy-transition materials like aluminum and mono-silicon, are up, while 25 have slipped, reflecting a complex mix of policy, inventory cycles, and end-market demand.

Within the nine tracked rare earth products, October delivered a telling split:

• Month-on-month: 1 up, 1 unchanged, 7 down.
• Year-on-year: 8 up, 1 down.

The standout is cerium oxide, with an average price of 11,250 yuan/ton, up 3.2% month-on-month and 56.3% year-on-year — the largest annual gain among all surveyed products. For Western and U.S. investors, that spike matters: cerium is a workhorse in glass polishing, catalysts, and certain green-tech applications, and its price trajectory is a barometer of both industrial activity and the evolving economics of China’s rare earth complex.

The broader takeaway: while short-term rare earth pricing in Baotou is softening at the margin, the year-on-year strength across most rare earth products confirms that China’s upstream leverage remains intact. A rising cerium price against a backdrop of mixed macro signals suggests ongoing demand in key downstream sectors, even as Beijing’s policy and inventory strategies continue to shape the curve.

For Western buyers trying to build ex-China supply chains, Baotou’s October snapshot is another reminder: you are still benchmarking against a deeply integrated, policy-sensitive pricing system inside China — and cerium’s outperformance hints at where margin pressure could show up next.

But there is no doubt that a nascent ex-China market with its own set of security-driven prices emerges.

Disclaimer: This news item originates from Baogang Daily (opens in a new tab), a publication affiliated with a Chinese state-owned entity. All information should be independently verified by non-state, third-party sources before forming business, policy, or investment conclusions.

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