Highlights

• Brazil's Serra Verde will terminate decade-long Chinese offtake agreements in 2026, reopening access to one of the world's only scalable ionic-clay heavy rare earth deposits outside China.
• The mine targets production of 6,500 tpa TREO of dysprosium and terbium by 2027, supported by a $465M DFC loan and garnering interest from U.S., European, Japanese, and Canadian buyers.
• Western separation plants for heavy rare earth elements (REEs) are expected to be operational within years, potentially creating the first legitimate non-Chinese supply path for critical magnet materials used in defense, electric vehicles (EVs), and wind turbines.

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Brazil’s Serra Verde (opens in a new tab) has quietly detonated one of the most consequential shifts in the rare earth landscape this year. As reported by Reuters, CEO Thras Moraitis (opens in a new tab) confirmed that the company has renegotiated its decade-long Chinese offtake agreements, cutting them short to end in 2026. This single contractual maneuver reopens access to one of the world’s only scalable sources of ionic-clay heavy rare earths outside China and Myanmar—a development that Western investors and strategists have been waiting for.

For context: Serra Verde’s ionic-clay deposit is uniquely rich in dysprosium and terbium, the two elements that anchor high-temperature magnet supply chains for defense systems, EVs, and wind turbines. These are precisely the elements that the West lacks, and exactly where China maintains ironclad dominance.

A Door Opens: Western Capacity Finally Coming Online

Moraitis told Reuters that “in a couple of years” Western separation plants for heavy REEs will exist. This statement is directionally accurate—projects in the United States, Canada, the EU, and Japan are progressing—but timelines remain fragile. No heavy-REE facility in the West is yet fully commercial at a meaningful scale. Still, Serra Verde positioning itself now gives Western buyers a rare contractual path to future supply.

This is not speculation: DFC has already approved a $465 million loan, validating both the deposit and the geopolitical logic. The mine is now producing, optimizing output, and targeting ~6,500 tpa TREO by 2027—a modest but strategically potent volume in a tight heavy-REE market.

“Everyone Is Calling”: What’s Fact, What’s Framing?

Moraitis claims that Chinese, U.S., Japanese, European, and Canadian buyers are approaching Serra Verde. That is entirely plausible—Serra Verde is effectively one of the only imminent ex-China heavy-REE clay producers. It’s also a rhetorical positioning aimed at maximizing negotiating leverage. But it doesn’t mislead: Western magnet makers are desperate for a guaranteed supply.

The mention of government-backed price floors is also grounded in fact. Washington has already extended guaranteed minimum prices to MP Materials, and G7/EU discussions are underway. For heavies, price stability is not a luxury—it is existential.

The Real Story: China’s Grip Loosens… Slightly

The notable takeaway is not that Serra Verde cut its Chinese deals short; it’s that for the first time in years, Western buyers may have a legitimate path to non-Chinese heavy rare earths. It’s a sliver of daylight, but in this market, daylight is everything.

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