Highlights

• The U.S. has accelerated rare earth development in 2025 through deals like Vulcan and bilateral agreements with Japan, Australia, and Saudi Arabia.
• Structural supply chain independence remains at least a decade away without major policy changes.
• America currently lacks commercial-scale separation plants.
• There are no domestic heavy rare earth capabilities.
• The U.S. faces multi-year permitting challenges.
• The U.S. is assembling pieces but not yet operational at scale.
• Washington's optimistic framing overlooks critical realities:
  • Geopolitical risks in foreign partnerships.
  • Unproven domestic processing technologies.
  • Starting from near zero makes any progress look like acceleration.

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When Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIC) Critical Minerals Director Gracelin Baskaran tells Bloomberg that the U.S. is “way ahead of last year” in rare earth development, the headline sounds reassuring—almost triumphant.

But Rare Earth Exchanges readers know that rare earth resilience is not built in a fiscal quarter. It is built in infrastructure, industrial capability, human capital, and time—lots of it. And without major industrial-policy additions, the United States remains a decade away from genuine supply-chain resilience.

On the Money

First, the U.S. has moved faster in 2025 than in any prior year. That is true, and Gracelin Baskaran is one of the most quoted rare earth sector subject matter experts.

• The Vulcan deal (mining + processing + magnet ambitions) is real, though early.
• The U.S. is aggressively assembling bilateral mineral agreements with Japan, Australia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and the DRC.
• Washington’s renewed interest in heavy rare earths, especially via Saudi deposits, aligns with known U.S. deficits.
• The observation that U.S. automakers must bring magnet supply closer to home is accurate—Detroit learned in 2024–25 that supply-chain shocks shut factories.
• Of course the MP Materials deal and more.

These statements match REEx’s independent tracking.

Where the Outlook Leans a Bit Optimistic

Baskaran’s suggestion that processing rare earths domestically is a simple matter of “choice” understates the reality. The U.S. faces:

• Zero commercial-scale separation plants online today, aside from limited tolling or pilot capabilities.  Yes, MP Materials received $150 million to expand a heavy rare earth facility, but that will take time.  Yes, ReElement Technologies is excited about their proprietary, patented chromatographic separation and purification technology, based on research from Purdue University--employing ligand-assisted displacement (LAD) chromatography in aqueous (water-based) systems, avoiding toxic organic solvents. But they must prove this out at scale.  Phoenix Tailings also shows real promise—but it's still early days.
• A multi-year permitting slog for every mine, refinery, or magnet facility.
• No domestic heavy-rare-earth separation capabilities yet commercialized—and we are a ways out!
• A magnet industry that is still in infancy, despite DoD-backed MP Materials and Noveon.

This isn’t doom. It is the truth: the U.S. is assembling pieces, but the orchestra is not yet playing.

Where Bias and DC Framing Appear

CSIS operates in Washington’s gravitational field, and it shows.

• The claim that the U.S. will be “self-sufficient” in two years is rightly dismissed by Baskaran herself—but the framing still implies a short runway to independence. Unrealistic. But we give kudos to Baskaran for calling out the obvious.
• Portrayal of U.S. deals abroad (DRC, Saudi Arabia, Brazil) as unequivocal progress glosses over the geopolitical risks, ESG constraints, and on-ground instability that have stalled similar efforts for 20 years. Like Saudi Arabia, were we not going to refine rare earths in the USA? Why outsource to Saudi Arabia? That will not be an issue for years, regardless.
• The narrative contrasts “clean U.S. processing” with “dirty Chinese processing” without acknowledging that U.S. refineries do not yet exist at scale to prove this, nor that China’s modernization has been uneven but real. And they do not touch on the massive green initiative China state-backed entities have embraced—Rare Earth Exchanges reports on those efforts in China.

There is a lot of optimism in Washington, that’s certain. President Trump has declared on at least a couple of occasions that we would have more magnets next year. Will we?

The REEx Bottom Line

America is indeed “ahead of last year”—but when starting from near zero, any movement looks like acceleration. Real resilience demands industrial build-out, not diplomatic snapshots. According to Rare Earth Exchanges’ estimates, the U.S. remains at least a decade from structural independence, unless policy, capital, and permitting frameworks change dramatically, and we have our Operation Warp Speed moment in critical minerals and rare earths.

Check out the Bloomberg episode (opens in a new tab) with guest Ms. Baskaran.

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