China Rare Earth Price Index Hits 262.8-Heavy Rare-Earth Scarcity Fractures Global Pricing

Highlights

• China Rare Earth Industry Association set its September 2 index at 262.8, with NdPr oxide at $107–110/kg, dysprosium at $214–220/kg, and terbium exceeding $1,000/kg.
• China's index reflects state-directed production controls and export licensing, making it a domestic indicator rather than unconstrained global price discovery.
• Outside China, heavy rare earth trades are largely bilateral and confidential, meaning availability now outranks price as the critical supply constraint.
• The Pentagon's $110/kg NdPr floor with MP Materials and Serra Verde-linked Dy/Tb floors are contract-specific mechanisms, not universal Western benchmarks.

China's Rare Earth Industry Association put its September 2 price index at 262.8, versus a 2010 base of 100. Its reference sheet priced NdPr oxide at ¥718.1–738.1/kg ($107.72–110.72), dysprosium oxide at ¥1,430–1,470/kg ($214.50–220.50) and terbium oxide at ¥6,725–6,785/kg ($1,008.75–1,017.75). Independent Chinese-market reporting broadly corroborates the domestic pricing environment.

REEx Insight | Price Discovery—or Policy Discovery?

The index is useful—but investors should not mistake it for an LME-style market.

The Association calculates its index from average daily transaction data supplied by Chinese rare-earth companies. China's market operates inside production controls, state-owned industrial concentration, export licensing, and national-security policy. That makes these reference prices real domestic indicators, but not unconstrained global price discovery.

Outside China the problem reverses: there is too little transparent liquidity. Heavy-rare-earth trades are often bilateral, specification-dependent, and confidential. A pricing agency's assessment may therefore reflect a small number of trader indications rather than a deep executable market.

And increasingly, availability outranks price. Recent reporting confirms persistent ex-China shortages of heavy rare earths; Energy Fuels' U.S. production of 99.9% Dy₂O₃ was noteworthy precisely because diversified supply remains so limited. China's July yttrium exports to America improved but remained constrained following the 2025 controls.

The Strategic Price Board

*At requested ¥1 = $0.15. †Yttrium is not a lanthanide; commercially it is commonly associated with HREE supply chains.

Buyer Beware | A Floor Is Not a Market

The Pentagon's $110/kg NdPr floor with MP Materials is a contractual support mechanism, not an industry-wide U.S. floor. Likewise, Serra Verde-linked floors of $575/kg Dy and $2,050/kg Tb are transaction-specific economics—not universal Western benchmarks.

REEx Bottom Line: Rare-earth pricing increasingly answers two questions: What does the material cost—and can you actually obtain qualified material where you need it? For heavy rare earths, the second question may now matter more.

Source Disclaimer: The index originates from the Association of China Rare Earth Industry, not a conventional state-owned media outlet. Its industry data operate within China's state-directed rare-earth system and should be independently corroborated. Ex-China quotations are likewise indicative rather than exchange-discovered prices.