Rare Earth Study Challenges China "Weaponization" Narrative - But Supply Concentration Still Matters

Highlights

• Lucas Miailhes argues analysts have overstretched the 'weaponized interdependence' theory when applied to China's rare earth and lithium supply chains.
• REEx counters that supply concentration remains strategically dangerous even without perfect control, as temporary restrictions can disrupt industries before alternatives qualify.
• Japan's post-2010 response—stockpiles, Lynas, and supplier diversification—shows markets adapt, but today's electrification and defense supply chains are vastly larger.
• China's recent export controls and licensing requirements suggest rare earth weaponization has moved from theory to active economic statecraft.
• The study identifies three analytical flaws: State-Firm Alignment Fallacy, Network Rigidity Illusion, and Unilateral Dependency Bias.