China Rare Earth Price Index Reaches 263.4 as "Forgotten Heavies" Expose Western Supply Gap

Highlights

• China's September 22 Rare Earth Price Index reached 263.4, with thulium and NdPr products rising while most quotes held flat.
• Western strategy focuses on NdPr, dysprosium, and terbium, leaving a critical blind spot for yttrium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, and lutetium.
• Lutetium oxide is quoted at ¥4,950–5,150/kg in China, yet ex-China availability is described as extremely thin and bespoke.
• The Pentagon has established price floors for NdPr, Dy, and Tb via specific contracts, but no commercial architecture exists for exotic rare earth heavies.
• Downstream disruption from rare earth supply chain vulnerability has been estimated at up to $10 trillion by Rare Earth Observer.