Global Rare Earth Inventory Maps the Race Beyond China?but Exposes the Processing Gap

Highlights

• China's 2024 smelting-and-separation quota reached 254,000 tonnes TREO, with an estimated 300,000 tonnes of annual separation capacity clustered around Baotou alone.
• Ex-China players like MP Materials, Lynas, Neo Performance Materials, and Phoenix Tailings are expanding, but announced capacity does not equal qualified commercial output.
• Serra Verde's Brazilian ionic-clay concentrate still flows to China due to limited ex-China heavy-REE separation capacity, illustrating the missing bridge problem.
• Strategic value increasingly depends on conversion capability, not geology—the next rare earth winners may control processing steps, not the largest deposits.