Highlights

• China's permanent magnet exports to the EU jumped 59.5% year-on-year in November to 2,568.8 tonnes.
• Exports to the US dropped 8.84% to 581.8 tonnes, suggesting Beijing's export-licensing regime may be strategically directing supply.
• China has begun issuing general export licenses for rare earth-related items, representing selective normalization rather than a rollback of controls, with leverage retained through governance mechanisms.
• The export surge coincides with Beijing warning the EU against 'discriminatory' enforcement under its Foreign Subsidies Regulation, signaling that exports continue but geopolitical leverage remains intact.

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Ukraine’s national news agency UNN reports (opens in a new tab) that China’s permanent magnet exports to the European Union surged 59.5% year-on-year in November to 2,568.8 tonnes, citing data from China’s General Administration of Customs and reporting by the South China Morning Post. Over the same period, exports to the United States fell 8.84% to 581.8 tonnes, while global magnet exports rose 28.29% to 6,149.95 tonnes. If accurate, the divergence suggests that Beijing’s evolving export-licensing regime may be influencing who receives supply first.

Independent verification is warranted, but the figures align directionally with broader reporting on China’s export controls and licensing adjustments.

Licenses Don’t Mean Freedom—They Mean Governance

The policy backdrop matters more than the tonnage. Reuters, China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) statements, and state media confirm that China has begun issuing general export licenses for certain rare earth–related items, allowing approved exporters to ship multiple consignments over a defined period. This represents selective normalization, not a rollback of controls.

UNN’s implied causality—licenses driving the EU surge—is plausible but not proven. The reporting does not specify which exporters received approvals, which magnet chemistries were shipped (NdFeB versus ferrite), or whether EU buyers secured long-term licenses versus transactional clearances.

A Diplomatic Edge: Beijing Warns Brussels

Notably, this export data arrives as China Daily reports Beijing warning the EU against what it calls “discriminatory” enforcement actions under the bloc’s Foreign Subsidies Regulation, including investigations into Chinese firms. MOFCOM officials urged the EU to act“prudently” and signaled that China would safeguard its enterprises’ interests.

Read together, the signals are deliberate: exports continue—but leverage is retained.

What’s Solid—and What’s Being Stretched

What’s solid: customs-based export figures, corroborated licensing changes, and China’s dominant role in magnet processing, as widely documented by S&P Global, Morgan Stanley, and others.

What’s stretched: precise “near-monopoly” percentages cited without underlying datasets. China’s dominance is real, but exact shares vary by chemistry, processing stage, and definition.

Why Western Investors Should Pay Attention

If EU-bound volumes rise while U.S. shipments fall, export administration may be evolving into a geopolitical routing system. The risk to the West is not an abrupt cutoff—but quiet allocation, delay, or repricing via licensing.

Verification note: UNN is a Ukrainian national outlet relying on Chinese customs data and secondary reporting. Investors should cross-check with independent sources and primary policy statements.

Sources: UNN (Ukraine), Dec. 22, 2025; South China Morning Post; Reuters; China Daily; MOFCOM/Xinhua statements; S&P Global.

Disclaimer: This item originates in part from a Ukrainian national news agency and Chinese state-linked sources. Information should be independently verified.

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