Highlights

• A 2026 perspective paper argues that militarization—war preparedness, weapons innovation, and strategic stockpiling—is a major under-discussed driver of critical minerals demand, often overlooked in forecasts focused on energy transition.
• Military-driven urgency reorients supply chains toward speed and control, potentially undermining sustainability frameworks by changing governance incentives and tolerances for social and environmental trade-offs.
• For rare earths with concentrated processing, defense-driven demand intensifies strategic competition, accelerates stockpiling, and hardens export controls—making military considerations essential for complete critical minerals planning.

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A new perspective paper (opens in a new tab) in The Extractive Industries and Society (opens in a new tab) (June 2026) by Phil Johnstone and Anabel Marín argues that the “twin transition” (clean energy + digital technology) is not the only force reshaping critical minerals supply chains.

The authors contend that accelerating militarization—war preparedness, weapons innovation, and strategic stockpiling—is a major, under-discussed driver of rising critical minerals demand, with consequences that could clash with today’s sustainability frameworks.

Study Type and Approach

This is a perspective/analysis paper, not new field data. The authors synthesize historical and contemporary evidence to show how military priorities shape which minerals become “critical,” how quickly supply is pursued, and how extraction governance changes when defense urgency enters the room.

Key Findings

• Warfare and military technology have long shaped minerals demand, yet many forecasts focus overwhelmingly on energy transition demand.
• Modern militarization reorients supply chains toward speed, control, and readiness, changing governance incentives and tolerances for social and environmental trade-offs.
• The authors warn that this dynamic may undermine “shared global goals” sustainability frameworks, especially those emphasizing inclusion, participation, and development co-benefits.

Implications for Rare Earths and Processing Concentration

For REEx readers, the message is blunt: critical minerals planning that ignores defense demand is incomplete. In rare-earth minerals—where processing remains highly concentrated—military-driven urgency can intensify strategic competition, accelerate stockpiling, and harden export-control logic.

Limitations and Controversies

Because this is a perspective piece, it does not quantify how large military demand is versus civilian energy demand, and its conclusions rely on interpretation. Still, it usefully spotlights the growing “military–industrial–mining” nexus as a policy blind spot.

Citation: Johnstone, P., & Marín, A. (2026). Beyond the twin transition: military drivers of critical minerals’ expansion. The Extractive Industries and Society, 26, 101836. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2025.101836 (opens in a new tab)

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