Critical Minerals, Green Industries and Geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific

Highlights

• Japan is realigning its nickel mining investments from Indonesia to the Philippines to maintain geopolitical influence in Southeast Asia’s critical minerals sector.
• The strategic move aims to offer Western companies an alternative to China-dominated EV supply chains and strengthen regional partnerships.
• Japan’s partnership with the Philippines extends beyond economic interests, including military agreements and potential diversification of nickel supply chains.

---

Takahiro Kamisuna, a Research Associate for the Japan Chair Programme at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (opens in a new tab) (IISS), authored an analysis titled “Green industries and the geo-economics of critical minerals in the Indo-Pacific, (opens in a new tab)” published on January 23, 2025. In it, Kamisuna examines Japan’s shifting focus in the nickel-mining sector in response to regulatory challenges in Indonesia and its strategic competition with China, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) industry.

Kamisuna’s hypothesis revolves around the idea that Japan’s realignment of its nickel mining investments from Indonesia to the Philippines is driven not only by operational challenges but also by a strategic need to maintain its geopolitical influence in Southeast Asia’s critical minerals sector. The author argues that Indonesia’s regulatory complexity and political climate—along with the rise of Chinese investments—have made it less attractive for Japanese firms.

In contrast, the Philippines offers a more business-friendly environment, privatized infrastructure, and a closer geopolitical alignment with Japan. Kamisuna underscores Japan’s longstanding investments in the Philippines’ nickel industry and its ability to offer Western companies an alternative to the China-dominated EV supply chain.

Key Points

One of the key arguments Kamisuna presents is that Japan’s move aligns with its broader geo-economic strategy to counter China’s growing dominance in the region. The partnership between Japan and the Philippines is not just economic but also military, evidenced by recent defense agreements. This partnership is poised to bolster Japan’s leverage in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in securing high-quality nickel for EV batteries. Furthermore, the bottlenecks in Indonesia’s nickel supply present Japan with opportunities to capitalize on its experience in the Philippines, potentially offering a way to diversify the nickel supply chain in the region.

Challenges with POV

Rare Earth Exchanges identifies critical gaps in Kamisuna’s analysis. While the paper highlights Japan’s increasing investments in the Philippines, it doesn’t fully address the potential challenges Japan might face in competing with China, especially considering Beijing’s aggressive strategies to secure rare-earth resources and expand its influence in Southeast Asia.

Kamisuna also briefly mentions the bottlenecks in Indonesia’s nickel supply, but the long-term sustainability of Japan’s dominance in the region is uncertain, especially as China continues to push for technological and infrastructural dominance in the EV sector. Moreover, while Japan’s partnerships with the Philippines are expanding, the geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia is fluid, with shifting alliances and internal political changes that could alter the balance of power.

In closing, Kamisuna’s analysis illuminates Japan’s strategic shift within the nickel-mining sector but overlooks the broader implications of China’s rising influence and the potential volatility of the Southeast Asian geopolitical landscape. Japan’s strategy of aligning with the Philippines offers new opportunities, yet the region’s future may still hinge on unpredictable political and economic factors.