Trump Softening on China. The Rare Earth Wild Card

Highlights

• China controls 90% of global rare earth elements, giving it significant geopolitical leverage in technology and defense sectors.
• President Trump’s recent softer tone toward China may be linked to maintaining access to essential rare earth minerals and critical technologies.
• U.S. dependency on Chinese rare earth minerals poses potential risks to national security and advanced technological industries.

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In his recent statements, President Donald Trump has exhibited a notably softer tone toward China, a departure from his earlier hardline campaign rhetoric. This shift may be intricately linked to China’s dominant position in the global supply of rare earth elements and critical minerals, which are essential for various high-tech industries and national defense applications.

China currently processes approximately 90% of the world’s rare earth elements, making it a pivotal player in this sector. In December 2024, Beijing escalated trade tensions (opens in a new tab) by banning exports of critical minerals such as gallium, germanium, and antimony to the United States, citing national security concerns.

These materials are vital for advanced technologies, including semiconductors and military applications.

The United States’ reliance on Chinese rare earths has been a longstanding concern. In 2020, President Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency in the mining industry to boost domestic production of these critical minerals, as reported in media such as Defense News. (opens in a new tab)

Despite these efforts, establishing a self-sufficient supply chain remains a complex and time-consuming endeavor.

Given this dependency, it’s plausible that President Trump’s recent conciliatory approach toward China is a strategic move to ensure continued access to these essential materials. Alienating China could risk further restrictions or supply disruptions, which would have significant implications for U.S. industries and defense capabilities.

In summary, while multiple factors influence international diplomacy, the critical role of rare earth elements and minerals in modern technology and defense likely plays a significant part in President Trump’s moderated stance toward China. Maintaining stable relations may be deemed necessary to secure these indispensable resources.