Highlights
- A comprehensive study reveals China’s overwhelming control of the global tungsten trade, supplying over 80% of the world’s tungsten across all processing stages.
- Supply disruptions in tungsten could severely impact high-tech industries, defense manufacturing, and economic stability, with potential cascading failures in global trade networks.
- The U.S. faces critical strategic vulnerabilities due to 100% import dependence, with potential risks of supply chain interruptions and increased production costs in aerospace, defense, and clean energy sectors.
A recent study by Xinxin Zheng et al., published in Humanities & Social Sciences Communications (2025), explores how supply risks propagate in the global tungsten trade network. Given tungsten’s essential role in aerospace, defense, high-tech manufacturing, and energy storage, disruptions in its supply chain could have severe economic and security consequences.
The study hypothesizes that supply risks spread across interconnected trade networks rather than remaining isolated to specific countries. Using trade data from 2009 to 2020, the researchers constructed a five-layer tungsten trade network and applied a cascading failure model to simulate the ripple effects of supply disruptions. Their primary objective was to identify the most influential economies in the tungsten industry and assess how disruptions could impact global markets.
Methodology: Mapping Tungsten Trade and Supply Risks
The study categorizes tungsten trade into five key stages, from raw materials to final products: tungsten ores, tungstates (midstream chemical compounds), ferrotungsten (used in high-strength alloys), final tungsten products (industrial and defense applications), and tungsten-related high-tech products.
Using the cascading failure model, the researchers simulated how disruptions spread through trade relationships based on export volumes, trade partnerships, and economic centrality. They measured the impact cycle (duration of disruptions), impact range (number of affected economies), and infection proportion (percentage of global trade affected).
Key Findings: China’s Dominance and Global Vulnerabilities
The study confirms China’s overwhelming dominance in tungsten production and trade. China supplies over 80% of the world’s tungsten across all processing stages. The United States and Germany play major roles as trade intermediaries, but both are net importers, leaving them highly dependent on Chinese exports.
Resource-rich nations such as Canada, Russia, and Bolivia are critical suppliers of raw tungsten in the upstream sector. However, in midstream and downstream processing, countries with advanced refining capabilities, including Germany, Japan, and the Netherlands, hold greater influence. This shift highlights the importance of technological capabilities over raw resource ownership in maintaining trade influence.
The study’s authors also warn that even small disruptions in China’s tungsten exports can trigger a cascading supply crisis. In raw materials, supply risks spread indirectly through multiple trade connections, while in downstream products, risks propagate more directly through core trade partners. The findings suggest that as demand for tungsten grows, competition for secure supply will intensify, particularly in high-tech industries like EVs, aerospace, and semiconductors.
Critical Risks and High-Stakes Implications
One of the most pressing concerns is China’s ability to use its control over tungsten as a geopolitical weapon. China has already restricted exports of gallium, germanium, and rare earth elements, and It could take similar action against tungsten in response to U.S. trade tariffs or broader geopolitical tensions. A full Chinese export ban on tungsten would have severe consequences for U.S. industries, particularly in defense and semiconductor manufacturing.
The study also highlights America’s supply chain vulnerabilities. The U.S. has no domestic tungsten production, making it 100% reliant on imports. While the Biden administration pushed for supply chain diversification, the Trump administration’s return to an oil-and-gas focus (although he has mentioned rare earth elements and critical minerals multiple times) neglects any mission-critical investment in critical minerals like tungsten.
If tariffs further escalate tensions, China could retaliate by cutting off tungsten exports, directly impacting U.S. military readiness, EV production, and high-tech industries. Economically, a tungsten supply shock could result in billions of dollars in losses. The cascading failure model suggests that if China reduces its exports, alternative suppliers cannot fully replace the lost supply, leading to higher prices, production slowdowns, and technological setbacks.
What the Paper Fails to Address
While the study provides valuable insights, it overlooks key geopolitical and policy factors. First, it does not factor in the Trump administration’s policy shifts, which prioritize fossil fuels and reduce incentives for high-tech industries that rely on tungsten. If the U.S. moves away from clean energy and advanced manufacturing, domestic demand for tungsten could decline, but at the cost of technological competitiveness in the long run.
Second, the study does not examine the lack of U.S. investment in domestic tungsten production. While America has untapped tungsten reserves, strict environmental regulations, high refining costs, and long permitting processes have prevented the development of domestic mining and processing capacity. Without investment, the U.S. will remain dependent on foreign supply chains, leaving it vulnerable to future trade restrictions.
Lastly, while the study highlights China’s dominance, it fails to explore alternative supply chain solutions. The U.S., Canada, Australia, and the European Union are already working to develop secure tungsten supply routes outside of China. However, progress remains slow, and China’s market control will persist without substantial investment in refining capacity.
America’s Foreign Policy and the Future of Tungsten Trade
The findings underscore how escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China could directly impact tungsten supply chains. With Trump reintroducing broad tariffs on Chinese goods, China may respond by restricting tungsten exports, further disrupting U.S. military, EV, and semiconductor production.
The U.S. faces a critical strategic vulnerability, as tungsten is essential for armor-piercing ammunition, missile components, spacecraft, and high-strength industrial alloys. A prolonged supply disruption could force the U.S. to stockpile tungsten or seek emergency agreements with allies. However, the U.S. lacks sufficient refining infrastructure, meaning that even if it secures raw tungsten from allies like Canada or Australia, it will still depend on China for processing.
Another key risk is rising costs for American industries. If China enacts stricter trade controls, tungsten prices will skyrocket, increasing production costs for aerospace, clean energy, and defense contractors like Tesla, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin. Finding alternative materials may be possible, but this would slow innovation and increase production delays.
Finally, even if the U.S. diversifies its tungsten supply, Rare Earth Exchanges has also reported that no single country can replace China’s massive refining capacity. A hasty shift away from Chinese tungsten without a well-developed replacement strategy could lead to supply chain bottlenecks, shortages, and national security risks, thus creating far worse potential problems.
A Call for Strategic Action
Zheng et al.’s study offers critical insights into the fragility of the global tungsten trade network. It emphasizes that even minor supply disruptions can cause widespread economic and industrial consequences. The cascading failure model clearly demonstrates the dangers of overreliance on a single dominant supplier like China.
The recent paper does not account for major geopolitical shifts, particularly Trump’s tariffs and potential Chinese retaliation. Given that the U.S. is entirely dependent on tungsten imports, policymakers must urgently prioritize domestic mining and refining or build stronger mineral alliances with allied nations. As Rare Earth Exchanges has chronicled since the launching of this media platform, without immediate action, the U.S. faces the real risk of falling into a strategic supply trap, jeopardizing both economic growth and national security.
Daniel
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