Is a Half-Trillion Really on the Table? Doubts About True Value of Ukraine Rare Earth Deal

Highlights

• The US is seeking 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth mineral reserves, valued at $500 billion.
• Zelensky demands robust security guarantees.
• President Trump views the deal as economic repayment for years of US financial and military aid to Ukraine.
• Negotiations are complicated by:
  • Infrastructure challenges
  • War-zone locations
  • Potential geopolitical risks involving China

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A geopolitical power play is unfolding as the U.S. presses Ukraine to sign a revised deal granting America access to its vast reserves of rare earth minerals. The initial offer—50% of Ukraine’s rare mineral stock, valued at $500 billion—was swiftly rejected by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, citing a lack of security guarantees. The White House, undeterred, has returned with an “improved” proposal, though the specifics remain undisclosed.

A Big Question

But just how “vast” are these reserves in practical terms? While Ukraine’s rare earth deposits might look enticing on paper, the reality is far less promising. Extracting and processing these minerals requires extensive infrastructure, specialized expertise, and significant capital—none of which Ukraine currently possesses at scale. Worse still, a significant portion of these deposits lie in Russian-occupied territories, effectively putting them beyond Kyiv’s reach for the foreseeable future. The supposed $500 billion valuation assumes seamless extraction, processing, and market access—an assumption that ignores the immense logistical, financial, and geopolitical obstacles. In short, the minerals may be worth far less in practice than the U.S. and Ukraine’s high-stakes negotiations suggest.

The recent New York Post piece by Diana Glebova (opens in a new tab) and Caitlin Doornbos avoids these points.

The Hard Sell–U.S. Turns Up the Heat on Kyiv

President Trump, eager to balance the books after years of U.S. financial and military aid to Ukraine, sees this deal as a way to secure American access to critical minerals while extracting a form of economic repayment. National Security Adviser Michael Waltz made the administration’s position clear: Ukraine must “tone it down” and take the deal.

The White House’s frustration was palpable after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent returned from Kyiv empty-handed. Trump, never one to hold back, publicly vented his irritation: “They wouldn’t sign the document.” The U.S. is now applying pressure, signaling that Ukraine has an obligation to show gratitude for past support.

More Than Just Minerals

Zelenskyy, however, remains unmoved—unless security guarantees are on the table. After a meeting with U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg, he posted an optimistic Telegram message, suggesting that Ukraine is open to negotiations but only under conditions that prevent future Russian invasions.

For Ukraine, the deal isn’t just about minerals—it’s about survival. Zelensky wants concrete commitments from the U.S. in exchange for handing over control of a $500 billion strategic asset. Without a guarantee of U.S. defense backing, he sees the deal as a massive giveaway at a time when Kyiv’s sovereignty hangs in the balance.

The Unspoken Risks and China’s Shadow

The report highlights the back-and-forth but fails to address key blind spots:

• China’s Role – Beijing dominates rare earth processing and is watching these negotiations closely. If Ukraine shifts resources westward, China could retaliate economically or diplomatically.
• Feasibility of Extraction – Simply signing a deal doesn’t mean immediate production. Many of Ukraine’s deposits are in war-torn regions, making mining operations a long-term gamble.
• The Political Fallout – A forced or one-sided deal could fracture U.S.-Ukraine relations, especially if Kyiv feels strong-armed into selling off its assets without ironclad protections.

The Bottom Line

The U.S. is pushing hard to secure $500 billion worth of rare earth minerals, but Zelensky is holding the line until security assurances are baked in. Whether this is a straightforward economic agreement or an implicit trade of resources for military backing remains to be seen. What’s certain is that both leaders are playing high-stakes poker, and neither seems willing to fold just yet.