Highlights
- A CSIR study shows major minerals like iron ore, gold, and cobalt have less than 50 years of economically viable mining remaining.
- South Africa risks becoming a raw material supplier, potentially losing its competitive edge in global mineral markets.
- Urgent action needed to:
- Embrace circular economy models.
- Invest in local refining.
- Develop policies for long-term resource sovereignty.
Agroundbreaking study by S. Khan and colleagues at the Council forScientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), South Africa, published in The Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (February 2025), exposes the stark reality of mineral resource depletion and its implications for South Africa’s economic future.
The study (opens in a new tab) hypothesizes that mineral scarcity is a key driver for transitioning to a circular economy, a shift that would emphasize recycling, local beneficiation, and sustainable resource management. The findings paint a concerning picture: iron ore, lead, manganese, gold, and cobalt have less than 50 years of economically viable mining left, while 18 minerals—including lithium, platinum group metals, and rare earth elements—are classified as critical or strategic due to their economic significance and supply risks.
The study argues that without immediate action, South Africa could lose its competitive edge, failing to capitalize on its rich resources while other nations dominate processing and manufacturing.
A deeper dive into the data reveals troubling blind spots. While the study correctly identifies dwindling reserves, it fails to explore how global market manipulation and geopolitical forces may be accelerating South Africa’s resource crisis. For example, the report acknowledges that South Africa lacks production capacity for key minerals like lithium and graphite, yet does not investigate whether foreign-controlled pricing strategies or export dependencies are exacerbating supply risks.
Furthermore, the paper highlights the country’s over-reliance on raw mineral exports rather than domestic value addition but stops short of proposing clear policy interventions to shift from extraction to high-tech mineral beneficiation. The study also misses the critical question of whether South Africa’s mining laws and investment climate are deterring innovation and local industrialization. Some who speak off the record suggest the investment climate is not good.
Suppose policymakers fail to address these systemic flaws. In that case, South Africa risks becoming a mere supplier of raw materials to global markets, locked out of the real economic benefits of the clean energy transition. The call to action is clear to the clear-minded. South Africa must rapidly embrace circular economy models, invest in local refining capacity, and develop policies prioritizing long-term resource sovereignty.
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