Highlights

• China strategically subsidizes its critical minerals industry, while the US expects independent profitability from each supply chain player.
• The US risks becoming dependent on China for crucial materials used in F-35s and electric vehicles without urgent financial restructuring.
• Four key pillars proposed:
  • Government-backed supply chain investment funds
  • Domestic price floors
  • Public-private price stabilization
  • Long-term industrial policy

In a sharp and unflinching essay published today by the Atlantic Council’s EnergySource (opens in a new tab), Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes (opens in a new tab), former Deputy Director for Batteries and Critical Minerals at the U.S. Department of Energy, delivers a clear verdict on why the United States is losing the global race for control of critical minerals: not because it lacks resources, but because it lacks a viable financial model.

Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes

In her hard-hitting article, “Profitability and Power: Fixing U.S. Critical Minerals Supply Chains (opens in a new tab),” Zumwalt-Forbes dismantles the bipartisan myth that identifying rare earth deposits and opening mines will secure America’s industrial future. “

The U.S. expects each player in the supply chain—miner, refiner, manufacturer—to be independently profitable,” she writes. “China doesn’t. And that’s why they’re winning.” With state-backed subsidies and strategic pricing control, Beijing shields its producers from market forces while flooding spot markets to collapse Western competition.

Zumwalt-Forbes argues that unless Washington creates a financially integrated ecosystem—complete with demand guarantees, price floors, targeted tariffs, and long-term policy stability—any new mines risk becoming taxpayer-funded mirages. She proposes four bold pillars for an investor-aligned U.S. response: 1) government-backed supply chain investment funds, 2) domestic price floors for key minerals, 3) public-private price stabilization mechanisms, and 4) ironclad, long-term industrial policy.

The message is blunt for those paying attention. That is, this is not just a supply problem—it’s a market war, and China is playing to win. Without urgent financial restructuring, the U.S. will remain dangerously dependent on its greatest geopolitical rival for the materials that power everything from F-35s to EVs. “It’s time,” she writes, “to stop treating critical minerals as just a resource problem—and start treating them as the economic battle they truly are.”