Highlights
- BMO Capital Markets sees long-term bullish cycle for critical minerals despite geopolitical and supply chain challenges.
- Continued sector consolidation expected, with focus on scale, liquidity, and strategic mineral acquisitions.
- Sustainable finance and green energy economy remain structurally embedded.
- Copper, uranium, and rare earths driving future growth.
In a high-stakes interview with Global Finance Magazine (opens in a new tab), Ilan Bahar, (opens in a new tab) Co-Head of BMO Capital Markets’ Global Metals & Mining Group (opens in a new tab), laid out a confident and aggressive vision for the future of metals, mining,and critical minerals. As BMO clinches the award for Best InvestmentBank in Metals & Mining, Bahar signals full steam ahead—despite rising geopolitical tremors and global supply chain risks.
Bahar, a key figure in global resource finance, says the message to clients is clear: stay the course. “Energy transition and electrification trends aren’t going away,” he declares. “The long-term bullish cycle for critical minerals remains intact.” In other words, don’t let short-term market jitters derail long-term strategy.
BMO’s resilience in 2024’s rocky metals M&A environment is no accident. Bahar credits the bank’s deep institutional expertise and global footprint, from Toronto to Beijing, for keeping deals flowing. Their flagship Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference, now approaching its 35th year, has evolved to reflect the rising weight of rare earths and strategic minerals powering everything from EVs to AI hardware.
“Critical minerals are now central to the global economic engine,” Bahar says to reporter Thomas Monteiro. To match the moment, BMO has embedded bankers worldwide and carved out dedicated space in its annual conference to drive investor attention—and capital—into the sector.
M&A Energies – Bigger, Bolder, More Liquid
Bahar sees continued consolidation across juniors and mid-tiers, especially in gold and silver. The motive? Scale means liquidity. Liquidity means relevance. Relevance, in this capital-intensive sector, often spells survival. Bahar suggests that the next wave of growth will come from earlier-stage acquisitions as larger producers leverage strong balance sheets to secure their development pipelines.
Sustainable Finance: Past the Boom-Bust?
On the sustainability front, Bahar is upbeat. He believes the green energy economy is now structurally embedded, thanks to cost advantages in renewables and the growing need for grid resilience. Copper, uranium, and rare earths will remain essential—policy turbulence or not. Of course the recent American election could impact this assumption. America dropped out of the Paris Agreement, tossed electric vehicle mandates and the like under the “drill baby drill” mantra.
Any Blind Spots? How About ESG, Instability, and Global Tensions
But for all the bullish confidence, gaps emerge. Bahar’s vision presumes stable capital flows and permitting in high-risk regions like the DRC, Indonesia, and parts of Latin America—without addressing the complex realities on the ground. Missing from the conversation are the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) headwinds now reshaping project feasibility and investor expectations.
Also absent is a meaningful reflection on rising geopolitical risk, which suggests Rare Earth Exchanges. The race for critical minerals is no longer just about supply and demand—it’s a contest of industrial strategy between China, the U.S., and a world entering a new phase of resource nationalism, one that’s likely to have all sorts of twists and turns.
While BMO’s dominance is clear, the interview offers little discussion of how institutional capital might crowd out emerging ventures, reinforcing incumbents’ power in a space where innovation and local participation are often sacrificed for scale.
A Bold Vision & An Incomplete Map
Bahar delivers a forward-facing roadmap for the metals and mining sector—one rooted in confidence, continuity, and capital. But even as the sector rises to strategic prominence, his message sidesteps the mounting frictions at its core: social license to operate, geopolitical fragmentation, and the risks of over-centralized capital flows.
As investors chase the next lithium or rare earth windfall, the path forward demands not just optimism—but sharper awareness of the political and environmental terrain—minerals, mines, money and power.
Leave a Reply