Highlights
- Boeing secures contract to develop F-47, a next-generation stealth fighter designed to succeed the F-22 Raptor and restore U.S. air superiority.
- The fighter’s production is critically dependent on rare earth elements, with China controlling over 80% of key mineral processing.
- The F-47 represents a strategic shift in military aviation, featuring advanced technologies like sustained Mach 2 cruising and integrated unmanned asset coordination.
In a historic announcement on March 21, 2025, President Donald Trump confirmed that Boeing (opens in a new tab) had secured the coveted contract (opens in a new tab) to develop the F-47, America’s next-generation stealth fighter jet under the U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. Designed to succeed the aging F-22 Raptor and restore U.S. air superiority in an era of intensifying global competition, the F-47 embodies a pivotal shift in military aviation strategy, emphasizing long-range lethality, battlefield coordination, and extreme stealth over traditional dogfighting.
However, the F-47’s future hinges precariously on supply chains that remain heavily exposed to Chinese control over critical rare earth elements (REEs). Core materials such as neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and samarium are essential for the fighter’s propulsion systems, radar stealth capabilities, and sensor networks. China’s tightening export restrictions threaten to delay production, drive up costs, and inject strategic vulnerabilities into a program tasked with countering China’s own sixth-generation developments, such as the Changdu J-36. Meanwhile, China has no such limitations given its near monopoly over rare earth processing.
Boeing’s surprise selection follows major reshuffling within the U.S. defense sector. While Lockheed Martin remains committed to the F-35 program and a Navy carrier-based sixth-generation platform, Northrop Grumman focuses on the B-21 Raider. Boeing, however, was uniquely positioned, armed with excess industrial capacity and bolstered by sweeping internal reforms following years of scandal. The decision to anchor Boeing within the defense ecosystem underscores a cold strategic calculus: preserving America’s manufacturing edge at all costs, according to Military News, earlier this month.
Next Generation Fighter
Technologically, the F-47 will feature sustained supersonic cruising at Mach 2, new adaptive cycle engines from GE Aerospace (opens in a new tab) and Pratt & Whitney (opens in a new tab), stealth capabilities exceeding that of any existing platform, and operational flexibility designed for the Indo-Pacific’s vast battle spaces. Costing up to $300 million per unit and expected to deploy by 2029 (assuming no major delays), the F-47 will serve not merely as a fighter, but as a flying command center, integrating manned and unmanned assets in real-time to dominate future warspaces.
Yet, for all its engineering promise, the F-47’s success will ultimately depend not just on Boeing’s factories or next-gen engines, but on America’s ability to secure and control its rare earth mineral supply chains rapidly. On this battleground, the outcome remains uncertain.
Rare Earth Realities
The F-47’s sophisticated systems depend on specific rare-earth elements (REEs) and metals that are now at the heart of escalating geopolitical tensions. High-strength permanent magnets, critical for electric motors and flight actuators, require neodymium and praseodymium. Dysprosium and terbium are essential to stabilize these magnets for high-temperature jet engine conditions. Advanced radar systems and stealth coatings rely heavily on yttrium and gadolinium, while samarium enables ultra-strong samarium-cobalt magnets for extreme performance applications. Structural components demand titanium, tungsten, and niobium to ensure strength, durability, and radar-evading design. Without secure and scalable access to these materials, the F-47’s core performance advantages could be compromised.
Supply Chain Strains
The aircraft’s supply chain is equally complex and fragile. China currently dominates the mining and processing of most rare earths, leaving U.S. manufacturers like Boeing, Raytheon Technologies, and Northrop Grumman dangerously exposed. While domestic projects in the U.S. and Australia are underway to diversify sourcing, they are still years away from achieving full-scale output. Processing capacity outside of China is still severely underdeveloped. Component manufacturing relies on critical firms such as Raytheon for radar and avionics and Northrop Grumman for electronic warfare systems, while Boeing leads final assembly and integration. The U.S. Air Force oversees rigorous testing, but even the most advanced engineering cannot overcome raw material shortages.
F-47 contractors, their major component responsibilities, and the key rare earth elements (REEs) and strategic metals involved:
| Contractor | Component Responsibility | Key REEs, Strategic Metals |
|---|---|---|
| Boeing | Prime contractor: aircraft assembly, structural integration, flight systems | Titanium (Ti), Tungsten (W), Niobium (Nb) for airframe strength and stealth coatings |
| Raytheon Technologies (via Collins Aerospace?) | Advanced radar systems, avionics, electronic warfare suites | Yttrium (Y), Gadolinium (Gd), Samarium (Sm) for radar stealth and signal processing |
| GE Aerospace | Next-Generation Adaptive Propulsion (XA102 engine) | Neodymium (Nd), Dysprosium (Dy), Terbium (Tb) for engine electric systems and high-temp magnets |
| Pratt & Whitney (Raytheon subsidiary) | Competing adaptive cycle engine (XA103 engine) | Same as GE: Neodymium (Nd), Dysprosium (Dy), Terbium (Tb) |
| Northrop Grumman | Electronic warfare systems integration, drone coordination tech | Samarium (Sm), Yttrium (Y), Gadolinium (Gd) for signal jamming, communications stealth |
| General Dynamics Mission Systems (potential) | Sensor fusion software, AI battle management | Limited direct REE use; dependent on upstream avionics components (e.g., rare earths embedded in sensors) |
| BAE Systems (possible subsystem contributor) | Cockpit displays, pilot interface systems | Rare earth phosphors (Europium, Yttrium) for advanced heads-up displays (HUDs) |
F-47 components to their supply chain vulnerabilities if rare earth shortages worsen:
| Component/System | REEs Involved | Supply Chain Vulnerability | Risk Level (strategic) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engines (Adaptive Cycle Propulsion) | Neodymium (Nd), Dysprosium (Dy), Terbium (Tb) | Very High | Critical | China dominates over 80% of Nd/Dy/Tb refining; alternative supply years away |
| Radar Systems (AESA Radar, Sensors) | Yttrium (Y), Gadolinium (Gd), Samarium (Sm) | High | Critical | Essential for stealth and long-range targeting; radar failure = mission failure |
| Electronic Warfare Systems | Samarium (Sm), Yttrium (Y), Gadolinium (Gd) | High | Critical | EW systems must jam/suppress enemy systems; heavily REE-reliant |
| Electric Motors (Actuators, Drone Coordination) | Neodymium (Nd), Praseodymium (Pr) | High | Critical | Precision actuation critical for control surfaces and drones |
| Structural Airframe Materials | Titanium(Ti), Tungsten (W), Niobium (Nb) | Moderate | Serious | Less China-dependent, but strategic metals like tungsten are still supply-constrained globally |
| Cockpit Displays (HUD, Avionics Interfaces) | Europium (Eu), Yttrium (Y) | Moderate | Serious | Avionics affected, but survivable compared to propulsion or radar losses |
| Software/AI Systems | Indirect dependency (through embedded hardware) | Low | Moderate | Less REE-dependent directly, but hardware disruptions could delay deployment |
Implications
China’s tightening of REE exports threatens direct supply disruptions, cost escalation, and strategic exposure. If materials like neodymium, dysprosium, or terbium become inaccessible or unaffordable, the F-47’s production cadence—and by extension U.S. air superiority—could falter.
Strategic independence demands urgent action. The U.S. must invest heavily in domestic mining and refinement of rare earths, build robust strategic reserves, and establish secure supply chains immune from foreign leverage.
As the F-47 moves toward operational readiness, America’s ability to field this next-generation fighter will not only depend on engineering excellence but on mastering the invisible war for critical minerals. Without aggressive investment and policy leadership, the nation risks grounding its most vital defense advances at the starting line.
Rare Earth Exchanges was founded January 2025 to chronicle, track and report on the rare earth element and critical mineral market—from mine-to-magnet—as it unfolds outside of China.
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