Highlights

• The May 1 minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine aims to reduce dependence on Chinese and Russian critical mineral supply chains.
• The deal grants the US preferential rights to Ukraine's mineral reserves, including rare earth elements and uranium.
• The agreement supports Ukraine's defense.
• The agreement highlights the global competition for mineral resources.
• The deal faces challenges in processing infrastructure.
• There are potential neo-colonial perceptions regarding the agreement.

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The May 1 minerals deal between the United States and Ukraine, reported by the Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor (opens in a new tab), marks a high-profile step in America’s effort to reduce reliance on Chinese and Russian-controlled critical mineral supply chains. The agreement grants the U.S. preferential rights to Ukraine’s vast mineral wealth—especially rare earth elements (REEs), uranium, and other critical inputs—through a U.S.-controlled, jointly managed investment fund. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hailed the pact as a dual-purpose solution: financing the country’s defense and building out resource monetization for postwar reconstruction.

Some Context--Scramble for Mineral Sovereignty

The backdrop is clear: the U.S. is rushing to secure access to global critical mineral reserves to counter China’s grip on refining and Russia’s leverage in uranium enrichment. As the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes, China is projected to control over 90% of refined REEs and battery-grade graphite by 2030. Russia remains a dominant uranium supplier, accounting for 35% of U.S. uranium imports in 2024. The U.S.-Ukraine pact is designed to bypass these chokepoints—but risks replacing one dependency with another if systemic challenges aren’t addressed.

What the Deal Gets Right

The Jamestown Foundation correctly frames the deal within the intensifying global competition for mineral dominance. The agreement aligns with Washington’s broader industrial strategy to onshore or “friendshore” access to strategic materials, especially as the Defense Production Act and Department of Energy policies attempt to catalyze domestic industry. Ukraine, with its vast untapped reserves of REEs, uranium, and critical metals, presents an attractive, allied alternative to adversarial suppliers.

Midstream Blind Spot and Neo-Colonial Optics

However, the reporting and the underlying agreement fail to address two fundamental weaknesses. First, there is no mention of how extracted Ukrainian minerals will be processed. The U.S. still lacks sufficient domestic REE separation, alloying, and magnet manufacturing capacity. Without midstream and downstream industrial infrastructure, critical materials sourced from Ukraine will still require foreign refining, likely in Asia. Second, the terms of the U.S.-controlled investment fund raise uncomfortable questions about sovereignty, profit-sharing, and postwar leverage. European analysts have already criticized the structure as exploitative, warning that Ukraine may be mortgaging its natural wealth under duress.

Resource Nationalism vs. Strategic Realignment

The Jamestown Foundation’s coverage of similar trends in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, and Central Asia underscores a wider pattern: great power competition over rare earths is reshaping alliances, triggering regulatory reforms, and heightening resource nationalism. Ukraine’s inclusion in this new geopolitical mineral order represents a potential gain for the West, but only if the arrangement fosters transparent, equitable development and avoids replicating the extractive models of the past.

Conclusion

The U.S.-Ukraine critical minerals deal reflects bold strategic ambition but suffers from blind spots in execution. Without parallel investment in Western processing infrastructure, logistics, and equitable governance frameworks, the deal risks becoming another upstream-access grab divorced from industrial sovereignty. For the U.S. to truly secure critical mineral independence, it must pair foreign resource agreements with a comprehensive mine-to-magnet ecosystem, and respect the autonomy of the nations supplying the ore.