After Ukraine, U.S. Turns to Africa for Critical Minerals-but Midstream Gaps Remain Unaddressed

Highlights

• The U.S. is exploring mineral deals with the Democratic Republic of Congo following the Ukraine agreement, targeting strategic ore resources.
• Current U.S. mineral acquisition strategies lack comprehensive processing and manufacturing capabilities, with China dominating midstream and downstream infrastructure.
• Investors are questioning the effectiveness of mineral access strategies without significant investment in domestic refining and rare earth magnet production.

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Following the announcement of a minerals-for-weapons deal with Ukraine, the U.S. has quietly shifted its critical minerals focus to Africa, engaging with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) amid rising regional instability. According to Reuters (opens in a new tab), Kinshasa made a Ukrainian-style proposal to the Trump administration in February, aiming to secure U.S. support as the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group surged through eastern provinces rich in coltan, cobalt, and other strategic ores.

While access to African mineral feedstocks may appear to bolster U.S. critical mineral strategy, this move once again underscores the persistent flaw in Washington’s approach: Stockpiling unrefined ore is not the same as industrial self-reliance. A whole supply chain must be built—from mine to magnet at scale. 

Despite Africa’s vast mineral wealth, it cannot fill the gaping midstream and downstream voids in the U.S. supply chain. Processing capacity, separation technology, and rare earth magnet manufacturing remain almost entirely dominated by China. Without building or repatriating refining and value-added infrastructure, U.S. mineral access strategies risk becoming expensive political optics. Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) has suggested on that topic that the Ukraine deal is just that—optics.

Investors and policymakers should ask: Will Africa’s ore be rerouted through Chinese-controlled processors anyway? And what, if anything, is the U.S. doing to close the domestic refining and magnet production chasm before the current supply chain crisis intensifies?