Europe’s Military Supply Chain Under Strain–New Study Exposes Critical Vulnerabilities and Calls for Institutional Overhaul

Highlights

• Klymenko’s research reveals the EU’s dangerous overreliance on non-European actors for critical defense resources and logistics.
• NATO’s logistics remain predominantly dependent on U.S. military-industrial strength, limiting European strategic autonomy.
• The study calls for centralized reform of EU defense governance to prevent long-term geopolitical marginalization.

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A 2025 thesis by Roman Klymenko, titled Supply Chain Robustness in EU Military-Industrial Framework: Potential and Reformation, delivers a rigorous and timely assessment of systemic weaknesses in Europe’s defense-related supply chains—highlighting how crises like the war in Ukraine, COVID-19, and the semiconductor shock have laid bare the European Union’s overreliance on non-European actors for critical resources, particularly rare earth elements and strategic materials.

Study Methodology

Klymenko applies the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model to evaluate institutional performance across European defense structures, with focused case studies on the European Defence Agency (EDA) and European Defence Fund (EDF). The thesis critically examines logistics coordination inside NATO—with particular attention to U.S. dominance—and evaluates institutional overlaps, communication bottlenecks, and infrastructure interdependence in the context of crisis preparedness.

Key Findings

1. Strategic Dependency on Non-EU Actors

   The EU remains dangerously reliant on the United States for NATO logistics leadership and on China for critical mineral inputs vital to defense technology. This dependence undermines any claim to European strategic autonomy and risks operational paralysis during geopolitical shocks.

2. **Institutional Inefficiency

   **Case studies of EDA and EDF operations using the SCOR framework reveal fragmented governance, poor logistical synchronization, and lack of real-time coordination mechanisms. These failures have repeatedly delayed equipment procurement and deployment in active securityscenarios.

3. NATO’s Logistics Bottleneck

   The research highlights how NATO’s logistical backbone still hinges on U.S. military-industrial strength, limiting Europe’s capacity to operate independently. Efforts to increase EU-level logistics readiness are hampered by redundant command structures and inconsistent national contributions.

4. Critical Infrastructure Intertwinement

   The thesis underscores that the EU's defense supply chains are intricately linked to civilian infrastructure, creating points of systemic failure. For example, semiconductor shortages impacted both defense and healthcare systems during COVID-19, illustrating how cross-sector vulnerabilities propagate rapidly.

5. **Urgent Need for Institutional Reform

   **Klymenko concludes that centralized reform of EU defense governance bodies is essential tostrengthen resilience. Without a clear realignment and streamlining ofdefense supply chain management under EU command, Brussels risks long-term geopolitical marginalization.

Implications for Western and European Stakeholders

From an industrial and policy standpoint, this study makes clear that Europe’s military-industrial autonomy is aspirational at best without aggressive restructuring. For investors, the message is equally stark: EU defense markets may remain inefficient and reactive unless member states prioritize critical infrastructure sovereignty—especially in rare earth processing, advanced manufacturing, and semiconductor independence.

For the United States and its Five Eyes allies, the findings present a paradox: European weakness sustains NATO cohesion, but undermines shared long-term security goals. Unless the EU builds a robust internal supply chain, Western preparedness will remain asymmetrically distributed—with disproportionate responsibility falling on Washington.

Conclusion

Klymenko’s thesis is a wake-up call for defense officials, institutional reformers, and industrial policymakers. The call to action is clear: reform or remain exposed. As rare earth independence and defense supply chain robustness rise on Brussels' strategic agenda, this research offers a blueprint—but only if political will follows.

Access the study: https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-202505028765 (opens in a new tab)