Highlights

• Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices increased as suppliers raised offers and buyers anticipated further price growth.
• Supply constraints persist due to reduced ion-adsorption ore availability and supplier reluctance to sell.
• Market dynamics show a speculation-driven price rally with soft downstream demand and limited fundamental support.

Rare earth prices remained at elevated levels this week, driven by tightening supply and bullish market sentiment, according to China-based Shanghai Metals Market (opens in a new tab) (SMM). Notably, praseodymium-neodymium (Pr-Nd) oxide prices surged as suppliers raised offers and buyers anticipated further upside. Meanwhile, medium-heavy oxides like dysprosium and terbium also held firm amid reduced ion-adsorption ore availability, exacerbated by Southeast Asia’s rainy season and supplier reluctance to sell. Imports of monazite rose significantly year-over-year, even as hopes swirl around a possible resumption of MP Materials concentrate shipments following U.S.-China tariff talks.

Despite these supply-side constraints, downstream demand remains soft. The off-season for magnetic materials has muted purchasing activity, and high prices have met resistance from fabricators and end users. Metal prices climbed on speculation of eased export controls, but no official change has occurred. As such, the rally is being fueled more by sentiment than fundamentals, with scrap markets also tightening due to reduced recycling activity and diminished order volumes from magnet producers.

What about deeper analyses of policy risks and structural demand signals, particularly the mismatch between short-term bullish speculation and longer-term demand stagnation?

Are end-user markets cooling? Will China continue to maintain firm control over export volumes over the short to intermediate term? Will near-term price stability mask broader volatility risks?  Watch for sharper policy action or demand shocks to rebalance the market.

See Rare Earth Exchanges Forum (opens in a new tab).