Highlights

• A potential new commodities supercycle is emerging, driven by deglobalization, U.S.-China tensions, and strategic mineral competition.
• The U.S. may dramatically reform mining policies and potentially quasi-nationalize mining assets to secure critical mineral supply chains.
• Rare earths, copper, silver, and nickel are positioned at the epicenter of a complex geopolitical and economic transformation.

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In an interesting interview involving David Wargo (opens in a new tab) (CEO, SCP Resource Finance (opens in a new tab)) and Trey Reik (opens in a new tab) (Bristol Gold Group (opens in a new tab)) the duo highlight the intensifying geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts reshaping the future of mining and rare earth elements (REE). Wargo argues the next global supercycle is forming around commodities, driven by deglobalization, U.S.-China decoupling, a weakening dollar, and national security imperatives. Rare earths, copper, silver, and nickel stand at the epicenter. The U.S. may be preparing to replicate its "Big Oil" playbook for mining—with serious implications for global supply chains and private sector control.

Key Themes & Insights

Recent U.S.-China trade talks may appear conciliatory, but David Wargo suggests underlying tensions remain. China continues to wield rare earths as leverage, selectively granting export licenses to countries like Vietnam and companies like Volkswagen—while excluding U.S. buyers. Wargo views this as Beijing’s calculated signal that it can realign supply chains to bypass American dependence, mirroring how the U.S. has constrained China’s access to AI technologies through Nvidia.

Meanwhile, Wargo casts doubt on the feasibility of the Saudi Arabia-MP Materials partnership, dismissing it as a geopolitical press release with little near-term potential. Trump’s executive order promoting deep-sea mining is similarly waved off as posturing, with Wargo noting ample supply exists above ground if U.S. permitting systems are reformed.

At the heart of Wargo’s forecast is a call for U.S. mining reform. Pointing to examples like the Resolution Copper project, which has languished in permitting for over two decades, he argues that if the U.S. hopes to break free from critical mineral dependency, permitting must be radically overhauled—echoing the shale revolution.

This, however, could come at the cost of greater state control. Drawing a comparison to the oil majors, Wargo suggests that future quasi-nationalization of mining assets is inevitable. Private companies, he warns, will not be permitted to hold strategic resources “over a barrel” from the federal government. Add to this the looming reconstruction of Ukraine—an endeavor projected to demand over $1 trillion in capital—and a picture emerges of explosive base metal demand.

Wargo’s ultimate thesis is unambiguous: the next commodities supercycle has already begun. Strategic minerals will soar with the U.S. dollar sliding, global capital inflows shifting to real assets, and Western nations intent on reshoring industrial capacity. His mantra—“buy gold, buy silver, buy rares, buy copper, buy nickel”—recalls the 2005–2011 commodity boom. Still, Wargo believes this time will be amplified by geopolitical necessity and state-backed investment. In his view, we are entering a new market phase and a full-scale industrial reawakening.

Critical Analysis & Omitted Risks

Optimism Overstated? Wargo's enthusiasm is clear, but the environmental and social costs of accelerated mining remain underexplored. Projects like Pebble remain lightning rods for ESG and Indigenous opposition.  The Saudi Bet on REEs lacks geological support; if it is a geopolitical alignment tactic, investors should be wary of project feasibility.  On the dollar decline thesis: This relies on currency war assumptions; while valid, they may not lead to immediate, linear commodity surges.  Finally, on permitting reform assumptions, they rest on major political will; actual policy change in the U.S. is slow and litigious.

Conclusion

David Wargo's interview serves as both a forecast and a warning. The coming surge in mining activity, particularly in rare earths and base metals, will not be led solely by market forces but by governments intent on controlling the next energy and technology frontier. Rare Earth Exchanges has suggested this may be a distinct possibility given the limits of free market capitalism in the current situation (e.g. China state-backed monopoly). For investors and policymakers alike, the clock is ticking—and the mining map is being redrawn.