Highlights

• U.S.-China trade agreement on rare earth materials appears more like a tactical pause than a comprehensive resolution
• China maintains strategic control over rare earth elements, using supply chains as a potential geopolitical leverage tool
• U.S. remains vulnerable without significant domestic investment in rare earth mining, refining, and manufacturing capabilities

Despite President Trump’s declaration that the latest U.S.-China trade agreement includes upfront commitments for China to supply “magnets, and any necessary rare earths,” industry analysts and geopolitical observers are urging caution. This is not a resolution—it’s a reprieve.

Rare earth elements (REEs) remain a high-stakes bargaining chip in what many now call the War Over the Periodic Table. While headlines celebrate short-term supply assurances, the real challenge lies in implementation—and enforcement.

China’s export control regime, which has tightened over the past two years under national security and industrial strategy mandates, shows no signs of full rollback. No details have emerged on whether critical materials such as neodymium, praseodymium, or dysprosium will be exempt from strategic licensing. Instead, the optics suggest a political maneuver to ease pressure without ceding long-term leverage.

Indeed, President Xi’s own remarks from 2020 reflect a consistent doctrine: China must “tighten international production chains' dependence on China,” and wield that dependence as a countermeasure and deterrent. The message is clear: any rare earth concession is temporary, tactical, and fully reversible.

While Trump’s team hails the agreement as a win, skeptics see an unresolved contradiction. China aims to dominate every link of the supply chain—from mining to magnet production—while the U.S. seeks to diversify away from Beijing’s control. These goals are not compatible.

In the meantime, domestic producers in the U.S., Australia, and Africa wait for clear signals. Without structural investment in refining and magnet manufacturing, America remains exposed. A shipment or two doesn’t change that.

The real battle isn’t over this week’s deal—it’s about control of the future. And unless the U.S. accelerates its own capacity, this trade détente may prove to be little more than a pause between escalations.