Highlights
- Trump claims victory in rare earth trade talks, but China maintains strategic ambiguity and control over critical magnet exports.
- China produces over 90% of global rare earth permanent magnets, giving Beijing significant leverage in international negotiations.
- The US must develop its own magnet production capacity to secure long-term industrial supply chain independence.
President Donald Trump may have shouted in ALL CAPS that “THE DEAL IS DONE,” promising full access to Chinese rare earths and magnets. But across the Pacific, Chinese media and state-aligned voices told a far more measured—and strategically ambiguous—story. Far from sealing a bilateral rare earth agreement, the London trade meetings appear to have produced little more than a framework for continued dialogue. Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) understood the outcomes from studying the various communications as a trajectory with parameters to move toward a fully normalized economic relationship again. Yet could it be the case that the gap between the Trump administration’s triumphalism and Beijing’s bureaucratic restraint exposes not only the potential for a diplomatic misfire, but the potential for a dangerous misunderstanding of leverage in the rare earth supply chain?
Chinese Perspective: Stagecraft Over Substance
In the Chinese-centered analysis by Shanghai-based commentator Andy Bham on Reports on China, the key message is unmistakable: Trump was not granted a victory, but an audience. After weeks of increasingly desperate overtures, he was finally allowed a phone call with President Xi Jinping—a gesture Beijing delayed signaling strength.
That phone call led to what China described not as a trade deal, but as an “agreement on mechanisms for future communication.” The Chinese Ministry of Commerce clarified that both parties had reached a “principled agreement” to _continue discussions_—not conclude them.
Most notably, on the issue of rare earths, China’s position remained vague but firm: exports would continue in accordance with existing licensing laws. From this point of view, and REEx must validate, there was no explicit new concession, no guaranteed increase in supply, and certainly no ironclad six-month delivery window, as some in Washington may have implied. Rather, China reaffirmed its sovereign right to control these strategic materials based on national interest, compliance, and regulation.
Bias and Bombast: Andy Bham’s Nationalist Undertone
While Bham’s report offers valuable insights into Beijing’s framing of the talks, it is heavily colored by nationalist sentiment and rhetorical swagger. Trump is portrayed as a groveling, delusional narcissist, while Chinese leaders are framed as disciplined and benevolent stewards of global trade. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bassent’s congressional remarks—calling China’s economy “imbalanced” and warning that it “cannot be allowed to export its way back to prosperity”—are interpreted not as strategic containment but as imperial hypocrisy.
Bham invokes the trope of China’s “century of humiliation” and frames the current economic decoupling not as strategic rivalry, but as Western regression. In doing so, he blurs economic strategy with emotional narrative, casting Beijing as a post-colonial victor and Washington as a fading hegemon unable to accept the emergence of multipolarity.
What Was Missed: Conditionality and the Magnet Chokehold
What both Trump’s brash claims and Bham’s chest-pounding ignore is the strategic conditionality Beijing continues to hold over the rare earth magnet supply chain. China still produces over 90% of the world’s rare earth permanent magnets, including nearly all NdFeB sintered magnets essential to the F-35, electric vehicles (EVs), and wind turbines.
No binding agreement was reached on magnet exports. What’s more, analysts believe China may have merely granted temporary approval for pre-existing applications, allowing just enough supply to avoid an immediate U.S. production crisis without yielding long-term leverage. In short: China gave Washington a tourniquet, not a lifeline.
Delusions of Decoupling
For REEx readers, at least one key takeaway suggests that rare earth diplomacy is not a victory tweet or a propaganda point. It’s a knife-edge negotiation, and at least in some ways, China holds the sharper blade—for now. The Trump administration’s premature celebration could backfire if the promised “full magnets” don’t materialize or come with hidden strings. Meanwhile, Beijing’s soft-spoken firmness masks an enduring reality for REEx: if the U.S. doesn’t build its magnet capacity, no deal will be safe, no matter who’s smiling for the cameras. We have repeatedly emphasized to President Trump the need to develop and implement a comprehensive industrial policy for critical minerals.
REEx will continue monitoring developments in U.S.–China rare earth negotiations and their implications for global industrial supply chains. Follow us for the truth between the headlines.
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