Vivoda et al. Deliver Wake-Up Call–U.S. Defense Hangs on Fragile Critical Mineral Supply Chains

Highlights

• Researchers warn U.S. military's technological edge is threatened by vulnerable foreign-sourced defense-critical mineral dependencies.
• Proposed multidimensional strategy includes:
  • Onshoring
  • Friend-shoring
  • ESG compliance
  • Regulatory reform
  • Recycling
  • Stockpiling to restore resilience
• Without decisive action, America risks technological attrition and compromised national defense capabilities in potential future conflicts.

In a landmark Comparative Strategy paper, (opens in a new tab) researchers Vlado Vivoda (University of Queensland), Ron Matthews (Cranfield University), and Jensine Andresen deliver a blistering diagnosis: the U.S. military’s technological edge is under siege—not by drones or missiles, but by a brittle, import-dependent critical mineral (CM) supply chain dominated by China and Russia.

The authors argue that the United States' overreliance on foreign-sourced defense-critical minerals presents a structural vulnerability that poses a threat to national security. They propose that only a radical, multidimensional strategy—combining onshoring, friend-shoring, ESG compliance, regulatory reform, recycling, and robust stockpiling—can restore resilience.

Key Findings

Underlying Assumptions & Biases

The authors assume that multilateral cooperation with allies can counter China’s leverage—an optimistic read given the BRICS bloc’s expanding mineral grip. They also presume that ESG compliance and national security are reconcilable under time pressure, which may underplay the urgency of defense imperatives during potential wartime scenarios.

Strategic Implication

Without decisive action, the U.S. risks technological attrition in a future conflict. The authors warn that America cannot wage modern war without assured access to CMs—and current policy is too slow to counter the BRICS-led mineral realignment.

Vivoda and colleagues issue a clear call to arms: fix the minerals trilemma—balancing security, affordability, and sustainability—or face a national defense crack-up. The time for planning has passed. Execution is now critical.