China’s Rare Earth Prices Hold Firm as Supply Tightens and Industry Sentiment Turns Bullish

Highlights

  • Shanghai Metals Market reports rising rare earth oxide prices and upstream market tightness driven by limited inventory and strategic supplier behavior.
  • PrNd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide prices are increasing.
  • Scrap market prices for rare earth materials are also trending upward.
  • China maintains significant market leverage through pricing power, processing capacity, and controlled supply dynamics.
  • The trends are impacting global clean energy and defense sectors.

In its latest market briefing, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reports (opens in a new tab) a firming rare earth market across the board, with oxide prices heating up and upstream transaction activity rebounding. Concentrated procurement by major downstream manufacturers, coupled with suppliers’ refusal to discount amid tight inventories, has driven a bullish price trend in both raw ores and refined products.

Key Market Takeaways

  • Upstream Tightness

    Rare earth carbonate is holding at ¥35,900/mt, while monazite reached ¥42,600/mt. Myanmar ore imports have slowed significantly due to weather-related disruptions, pushing domestic suppliers to hold back on sales.

  • Oxides Heating Up

    PrNd oxide is priced at ¥443,000–¥445,000/mt, dysprosium oxide at ¥1.62–¥1.64 million/mt, and terbium oxide at ¥7.12–¥7.18 million/mt. Increased purchasing activity and limited seller flexibility are reinforcing an optimistic price outlook.

  • Metals and Magnets Mixed

    PrNd alloy has risen to ¥544,000–¥548,000/mt, while dysprosium-iron alloy hovers near ¥1.58 million/mt. However, NdFeB magnet blanks are under pressure as demand softens and fierce domestic competition persists.

  • Scrap Markets React

    Prices for recycled rare earths from NdFeB scrap are up, with PrNd scrap fetching ¥483/kg and terbium scrap reaching ¥5,495/kg. Traders remain cautious but increasingly positive on future market direction.

Implications for the U.S. and Western Allies

This pricing firm-up underscores China’s control over the stability of the rare earth market. Even as the U.S. ramps up tariffs and Defense Production Act-backed investments, Beijing’s leverage lies not just in raw supply but in pricing power, processing capacity, and the psychological confidence of the global market. 

Upstream constraints, limited Myanmar imports, and China’s refusal to undercut pricing are clear signals: Beijing is in no rush to flood the market. For the West, this means higher input costs for magnet manufacturers and clean energy suppliers, just as EV and defense procurement ramp up.

Final Thoughts

China continues to anchor global rare earth pricing, and right now, the anchor is holding firm. As trade tensions escalate, the West must move faster to reduce reliance or brace for extended supply-side inflation.

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