New Uranium Trade Study Maps the Fragile Global Supply Chain-Kazakhstan and Canada Dominate Supply, While China, U.S. Drive Demand

Highlights

• Research maps uranium trade supply chain, revealing a highly centralized network dominated by Kazakhstan-Canada supply and China-USA-France demand.
• The uranium trade has shrunk in terms of participation and volume, with Russia and the US exerting a strong influence over global trade flows.
• A study warns of potential nuclear energy disruptions due to concentrated uranium enrichment among a few high-tech nations.

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A new study led by Xiaotong Huo, 1 Macau University of Science and Technology, and colleagues offers a first-of-its-kind structural analysis of the uranium trade supply chain using complex network theory. Published in Current Science, this research provides a crucial map of global uranium trade flows and their vulnerabilities, just as nuclear energy reemerges as a cornerstone of energy security and climate transition strategy.

While uranium is technically not a rare earth element, Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) also covers, by demand, the broader critical mineral ecosystem.

The researchers hypothesized that uranium trade forms a highly centralized, multi-layered global network that is increasingly exposed to geopolitical and economic risk. To clarify this structure and its weaknesses, they constructed a multi-layer trade chain network (MTCN) model using uranium trade data from 2014 to 2023, spanning raw ore through enriched and depleted uranium.

Study Design

Using complex network modeling, the study converted trade volumes of uranium ore, natural uranium, enriched uranium, and depleted uranium into a common unit (U-235 content). Countries were modeled as nodes, and trade flows were represented as directed, weighted links—an approach commonly used in critical mineral network analysis for lithium and rare earths.

Key Findings

REEx provides a brief breakdown of the core findings:

1. Boom-to-Fade Pattern: Uranium trade has shrunk in terms of participating countries, volume, and trade ties—but the dominant players remain unchanged.
2. Highly Centralized Flow: Supply flows from a tight “Kazakhstan-Canada” hub into a demand center anchored by “China-USA-France.”
3. Strategic Control: Russia and the United States exert strong influence over trade flows—even in non-sanctioned forms—raising risks of geopolitical disruption.
4. Upstream Dependence: Most trade activity is concentrated in upstream products (natural uranium), while downstream enrichment and recycling remain limited to a few high-tech nations.

Implications

This study offers policymakers and investors critical visibility into uranium’s chokepoints, especially important as demand is forecasted to hit 130,000 tonnes by 2040 (World Nuclear Association). With enriched uranium supply concentrated in the hands of Russia, France, and a few others, any geopolitical rupture could paralyze global nuclear energy progress.

The findings call for diversified sourcing strategies, reinvestment in domestic uranium conversion and enrichment, and greater transparency in secondary supply markets (e.g., recycled or reprocessed uranium).

Conclusion

As the nuclear revival accelerates, this study delivers a timely warning: global uranium trade is brittle, centralized, and vulnerable. For Western nations betting on nuclear power to power their energy transitions, this is a strategic weak link demanding urgent policy and investment action.

Citation:

Cao, C., & Peng, G. (2025). Investigating the Characteristics of Uranium Trade Flows and Trade Evolution along the Supply Chain. Current Science, 5(3), 3208–3220. https://doi.org/10.52845/CS/2025-5-3-87 (opens in a new tab)