Highlights

• Chinese commentator Victor Gao criticizes Trump's tariff policies as destabilizing the global economy and potentially provoking Chinese retaliation.
• Gao suggests China could weaponize its rare earth element exports, threatening critical U.S. defense technology supply chains.
• The commentary underscores growing economic and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, with potential global economic implications.

---

In a blistering rebuke of U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump, prominent Chinese commentator Victor Gao has warned that reckless tariffs and economic intimidation are destabilizing the global economy—and may provoke decisive retaliation from China, including a cutoff of rare earth exports vital to American defense systems.

Speaking amid rising tensions over Trump’s “Big Beautiful” global tariff regime, Gao—a former Chinese diplomat and current foreign policy advisor—outlined a stark China-centric view of unfolding geopolitical risk. He accused the United States of waging economic warfare not just on China, but on the entire global trading system.

Victor Gao’s statement delivers a sweeping indictment of Trump’s global tariff regime, which he describes as “exorbitant,” indiscriminate, and deeply damaging—not only to foreign economies but to working-class Americans who live paycheck to paycheck and ultimately bear the cost. He warns these policies risk triggering a U.S.-led recession fueled by market instability, Fed clashes, and inflation, with ripple effects slowing global growth by at least 1%.

Gao emphasizes China’s strategic leverage, especially over rare earth elements critical to U.S. defense systems, warning that Beijing could cut off exports of materials essential to missiles and aircraft. He frames the growing confrontation as a dangerous march toward full U.S.-China economic decoupling, possibly escalating into broader geopolitical conflict. Despite this, Gao maintains that China seeks peace and the preservation of free trade but will firmly “reciprocate” if treated as a hostile power. He underscores China’s global stature as the largest trading partner to more than 140 countries and positions Beijing as a defender of multilateralism and dignity in international relations.

What Gao does not share is that the Chinese have spent the last decade-plus implementing industrial policy exactly to build leverage over America.

Rare Earth Implications

Gao's most direct threat centers on rare earth elements—17 critical minerals essential to U.S. defense technologies, including stealth aircraft, missile guidance systems, and radar. “If China really plays its cards, it will be on the rare earth export,” Gao declared. He warned that any meaningful U.S. effort to replace China as a supplier would take “decades” and leave the Pentagon dangerously exposed.

This rhetoric escalates fears that Beijing will weaponize its near-monopoly on rare earth processing in retaliation for U.S. tariffs and export bans. While the Biden and Trump administrations have prioritized rare earth independence, Gao’s comments highlight how fragile that effort remains—and possibly, how easily China could choke supply chains if political tensions intensify.

REEx Reflection

Rare Earth Exchanges analysts categorize Gao’s statement as a strategic warning shot: if Washington continues to use tariffs and tech bans to contain China’s rise, Beijing will counter not only diplomatically, but also by targeting pressure points in the global supply chain, starting with rare earths.  This is why, despite President Trump’s declaration that a rare earth deal is in place, we can’t be so sure of the stability of this deal.

The message reflects a hardened Chinese posture—one that views economic decoupling not as a threat, but a scenario for which China is prepared. For U.S. policymakers, investors, and defense planners, the message is clear: rare earth resilience is no longer optional.  The U.S. and its allies must advance a policy to enhance the resilience of the rare earth supply chain.