Highlights

• Latin America captured 74% of $30 billion in global mining M&A through Q3 2025, marking a 200% surge since 2021, as investors prioritize regulatory stability and permitting certainty over resource abundance.
• Africa saw an 80% decline in mining M&A as investors shifted focus to regions with more regulatory stability.
• Despite holding 50% of critical mineral reserves, super-regions in Africa, West Asia, and Central Asia receive minimal exploration capital, creating a dangerous supply-demand mismatch as the demand for copper, lithium, and nickel accelerates faster than new production.
• Meeting the 2035 critical mineral demand requires $5 trillion in investment and 60 new major copper mines by 2034, yet current exploration only covers 40-50% of needed spending.
• A 16-year discovery-to-production lag threatens U.S. supply chain security.

A new report cited by Cecilia Jamasmie writing for Mining.com (opens in a new tab) finds that Latin America has become the dominant destination for global mining mergers and acquisitions, as investors retreat from higher-risk jurisdictions and prioritize stability, permitting certainty, and capital discipline. According to analysis by McKinsey & Company and the Future Minerals Forum, global mining M&A totaled roughly $30 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with 74% of deal value flowing into Latin America.

The data comes from the Future Minerals Barometer Report 2025 (opens in a new tab), which tracks mineral supply chains across Africa, West Asia, Central Asia, and Latin America. The report was jointly developed by McKinsey alongside industry partners, including S&P Global Market Intelligence and GlobeScan, integrating market data, investor sentiment, and project-level intelligence to guide global decision-making.

The central finding is a widening mismatch between mineral endowment and investment. More than 50% of the world’s critical mineral reserves are located in so-called “super-regions” — Africa, West Asia, and Central Asia — yet these areas receive the lowest levels of exploration and development capital, exacerbating long-term supply risks. Since 2021, mining M&A in Latin America has surged by more than 200%, while Africa has seen an almost 80% decline, reflecting a sharp shift in global risk perception.

The report warns that pressure on critical mineral supply chains is accelerating as the energy transition, digital infrastructure, and defense demand rise simultaneously. Demand for copper, lithium, nickel, and rare earths is growing faster than new supply, constrained by long permitting timelines, infrastructure gaps, capital intensity, and persistent policy uncertainty. Notably, over 45% of refined EV-critical materials are concentrated in a single region, heightening geopolitical risk, trade disruption exposure, and price volatility.

Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad estimates global copper demand will rise 75% by 2050, requiring 60 new copper mines the size of Peru’s Quellaveco over the next decade just to offset depletion at aging assets. McKinsey projects that $5 trillion in cumulative investment will be required by 2035 to meet critical mineral demand, while current exploration spending covers only 40–50% of what is needed. With an average 16-year lag from discovery to production, today’s project pipeline is unlikely to close supply gaps by 2030–2035.

Implications for the U.S. and the West

Capital is consolidating in politically and regulatory stable regions, while resource-rich but policy-fragile jurisdictions fall further behind. The report concludes that unlocking supply in Africa, Asia, and Latin America will require regulatory alignment, new financing mechanisms, and deeper government–industry partnerships — a message with direct relevance to U.S. industrial policy, defense supply chains, and critical-minerals security.