Highlights

• China controls over 90% of global rare earth processing, weaponizing supply chains through strategic coercion.
• India is developing a counter-strategy with mining liberalization, international alliances, and infrastructure investments.
• Despite promising potential, India's rare earth capabilities remain primarily aspirational and not yet commercially competitive with China.

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In Daily Good Morning Kashmir (opens in a new tab), columnist Rishi Suri delivers a sweeping—and largely accurate—alarm bell over China’s rare earth dominance, while painting India as a rising challenger poised to realign global supply chains. The article brims with urgency, outlining China’s tightening control over Myanmar’s heavy rare earths and its recent export weaponization. But beneath the national pride and geopolitical theater lies a mix of fact, aspiration, and oversimplification that investors must dissect.

On the Money

Suri rightly identifies China’s chokehold on rare earth processing—over 90% of global capacity—and the growing weaponization of that position. The Myanmar conflict, where China reportedly leveraged supply threats to coerce rebel-held regions, is a disturbing yet credible escalation. The surge in dysprosium and terbium prices, plus tighter magnet export controls, backs the claim that this is no longer economic competition—it’s coercion by supply chain.

India’s counter-strategy also reflects real momentum. The government has liberalized mining, boosted investment in refining infrastructure (e.g., IREL), and entered international alliances (Australia, Kazakhstan, Vietnam) for upstream and midstream cooperation. Its push toward magnet production and strategic stockpiling demonstrates long-overdue seriousness.

Aspriations

Suri’s framing of India as a near-peer alternative to China is premature. While India has vast geological reserves, very little refining or magnet-making capacity is currently operational. Pilot plants are in early stages, and magnet manufacturing remains in research or defense-linked labs—not commercial scale. The implied parity between India and China in the supply chain is, for now, a national ambition, not a market reality.

The article leans into geopolitical grandstanding, echoing Cold War metaphors ("mineral iron curtain") and positioning India as the democratic bulwark against authoritarian economics. While useful as rallying rhetoric, this risks overshadowing investor concerns like financing gaps, permitting delays, and infrastructure readiness.

REEx Guidance

Investors should watch India’s progress, especially processing plant timelines and public-private magnet ventures. But they must distinguish between declarations and deliveries. India’s strategy is promising, but the execution will determine whether it becomes a global player or remains a regional backup plan.

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