Highlights

• China's official Rare Earth Price Index rose to 242.7 on January 26, 2026—more than 2.4× the 2010 baseline—signaling a structural repricing driven by tighter export controls, producer consolidation, and accelerating global demand for magnet-intensive technologies.
• Heavy and magnet-critical rare earths lead price momentum:
  • Terbium remains extremely tight at ¥13,950–14,350/kg
  • NdPr showed incremental strength to ¥677–697/kg for mixed oxide
  • Dysprosium softened slightly due to inventory normalization rather than weakening demand
• The index trajectory reinforces urgent supply chain risks for Western OEMs dependent on Chinese rare earths, particularly for high-performance permanent magnets used in EVs, wind turbines, defense, and aerospace—highlighting the critical need for ex-China processing, recycling, and manufacturing capacity.

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China’s official Rare Earth Price Index (opens in a new tab) rose to 242.7 on January 26, 2026, according to data released by the Association of China Rare Earth Industry. The index—benchmarked to a 2010 base year of 100 and calculated from daily transaction averages across more than 20 Chinese rare earth producers—continues an upward trend that began in mid-2025. The pattern increasingly resembles a structural re-pricing rather than a short-term cyclical rebound.

Price Momentum: Heavy Rare Earths Lead

Product-level pricing confirms that heavy and magnet-critical rare earths remain the primary drivers, while light rare earths are broadly stable:

• Dysprosium (Dy) softened slightly:
  • Dy₂O₃: ¥6,245–6,305/kg (≈ $867–876/kg)
  • Dy metal: ¥7,730–7,830/kg (≈ $1,074–1,088/kg)
    This appears driven by short-term inventory normalization rather than weakening demand.
• Terbium (Tb) remains extremely tight:
  • Tb₄O₇: ¥13,950–14,350/kg (≈ $1,937–1,993/kg), underscoring continued scarcity in ultra-critical magnet inputs.
• Holmium (Ho) and Erbium (Er) prices were largely unchanged, signaling stable demand from specialty magnet, laser, and electronics applications.
• Neodymium–Praseodymium (NdPr) showed incremental strength:
  • Mixed rare earth oxide (Nd₂O₃ 75%): ¥677–697/kg (≈ $94–97/kg)
  • Nd-rich alloy: ¥825–845/kg (≈ $115–117/kg)
    Gains reflect sustained downstream magnet demand tied to EVs, wind turbines, robotics, and automation.
  • Note: The USA federal government established $110 per/kg for NdPr for MP Materials—the Trump administration has signaled that other companies may benefit from such a pricing floor.
• Gadolinium (Gd) products and samarium/cobalt-linked materials also firmed, reinforcing a key REEx theme: defense, aerospace, nuclear, and high-temperature magnet applications are exerting outsized pricing influence.

What the Index Is Signaling

At 242.7, the index implies that average rare earth prices are more than 2.4× their 2010 baseline, even before inflation adjustment. The steady climb since late 2025 aligns with:

• tighter export and compliance controls,
• consolidation among licensed producers,
• accelerating global demand for magnet-intensive technologies, and
• early signs of strategic and precautionary stockpiling.

Why This Matters for Western Markets

For U.S. and allied supply chains, the signal is unambiguous: China’s domestic pricing power is strengthening, particularly in Dy, Tb, NdPr, and mixed oxides essential for high-performance permanent magnets. OEMs dependent on spot or short-term contracts face rising cost volatility and supply leverage, while the index trajectory reinforces the urgency of ex-China processing, recycling, and magnet manufacturing capacity.

Disclaimer: This price review is based on data published by the Association of China Rare Earth Industry, a China-based, state-influenced industry body. Prices, FX assumptions, index methodology, and market interpretations should be independently verified using third-party, non-Chinese sources before being relied upon for investment, procurement, or policy decisions.