Highlights

• USA Rare Earth's market cap surged to $4.8B from under $500M in 2025 despite a $285M net loss, no revenue, and unproven separation capabilities, raising questions about valuation versus execution.
• Federal policy uncertainty emerged as a new risk factor, with potential withdrawal of automatic price floors threatening the business model that depends on government support over operational validation.
• Cantor Fitzgerald's involvement and proximity to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick amplified perception risk.
• Core structural challenges—scalable separation and non-Chinese feedstock—remain unresolved.

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Rare Earth Exchanges has often written about USA Rare Earth and its policy-driven ascent—and the unresolved structural questions that trail it. This week’s volatility did not emerge in a vacuum. It stacked fresh capital, fresh scrutiny, and fresh policy (although we’re not sure if the right policy) doubt onto an already combustible narrative.

The Echo Chamber Grows Louder: What REEx Flagged—Then and Yesterday

In prior REEx pieces, we outlined three recurring fault lines:

• Downstream ambition outrunning upstream proof
• Policy leverage substitutes for operational validation
• Equity markets price future dominance before present capability

Yesterday, REEx added a fourth accelerant: policy uncertainty. We covered the Reuters-sourced reporting that the federal government may not extend automatic price floors across all rare earth companies—marking a potential departure from the MP Materials-style framework. That rumor matters. Price floors are not window dressing; they are the difference between bankable cash flow and theoretical margins when factoring in the Chinese state-backed monopoly behavior of the past and future.

The market reacted accordingly.

The Optics Question: Cantor, Capital, and Proximity to Power

How the deal was assembled matters almost as much as its size.

Cantor Fitzgerald’s role—widely reported as instrumental in aligning private capital alongside federal support—invites scrutiny not because it is improper, but because it is symbolic. The firm’s CEO, Howard Lutnick, formerly a prominent banker and now U.S. Secretary of Commerce, and the involvement of his son in transaction-related activities have triggered quiet discussion among institutional investors about perception risk.

In rare earths—where industrial policy, national security, and capital markets intersect—optics amplify volatility. This is not an allegation. It is how capital behaves.

The Numbers Beneath the Narrative: A Financial Reality Check

Strip away the headlines, and the fundamentals remain stark but typical for a firm at this stage:

• TTM net loss: –$285M
• EBITDA: –$39M
• Operating cash flow: –$24.6M
• Levered free cash flow: –$22.4M
• Revenue: effectively nil

Yes, the company holds ~$257M in cash with minimal debt. But valuation has expanded far faster than fundamentals:

• Market cap: ~$4.8B, up fromsub-$500M earlier in 2025
• EV/EBITDA: ~28x on negative EBITDA
• Book value per share: negative

This is a pre-revenue, pre-separation enterprise being valued as though industrial policy has already delivered operating proof—placing execution risk under a microscope.

The Structural Constraint Still Standing

The core REEx critique remains unchanged: USA Rare Earth has not yet demonstrated scalable separation and refining, nor secured durable non-Chinese feedstock. Alloy capability helps downstream credibility—but magnets still require oxides.

Capital accelerates paths. It does not dissolve chokepoints.

Why This Matters Now

USAR is not just a stock—it is a live case study in what happens when Washington moves faster than chemistry and signals it may step back from price discipline. The recent whiplash is not confusion. It is price discovery under uncertainty.

Investors should expect more of it.

At a minimum, this episode confirms something long overdue: the U.S. government has finally woken up to the strategic reality of rare earths and China. After decades of neglect, Washington now understands that rare earth supply chains are not abstract commodities markets but hard infrastructure systems—dominated, engineered, and disciplined by Beijing. Federal capital, loan guarantees, and industrial policy signalingreflect a recognition that market forces alone will not dislodge China’s grip on separation, metals, and magnets. Whether this awakening translates into durable, execution-grounded supply chains remains an open question—but the era of pretending rare earths are someone else’s problem is clearly over.