Highlights

• Japan's vessel Chikyu recovered rare earth-rich sediment from 5,600 meters below sea level near Minamitorishima, but the discovery remains far from commercial extraction despite a decade of research since 2013.
• China's minimal response to Japan's announcement signals confidence, as Beijing controls over 90% of global rare earth refining capacity as of 2025, the critical bottleneck in the supply chain.
• Rare earth dominance is determined by processing capability, not geological deposits, with complex separation chemistry and industrial scale defining true supply-chain power rather than discovery headlines.

On February 1, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) announced that its deep-sea drilling vessel Chikyu successfully recovered sediment rich in rare earth elements from approximately 5,600 meters below sea level near Minamitorishima, Japan’s remote eastern atoll. Japanese media quickly framed the development as a potential “game-changer” for the global rare earth landscape. Days later, a Japanese reporter asked China’s foreign ministry for comment. Beijing’s response was strikingly minimal: “We have noted that there have been such reports in Japan in recent years.” No criticism. No alarm. No counterclaim.

That restraint is telling.

Chikyu

Japan’s story about rare earths on the seabed is not new. As early as 2013, researchers from theUniversity of Tokyo and JAMSTEC published findings suggestingexceptionally high rare earth oxide concentrations in deep-sea sediments near Minamitorishima—some reportedly exceeding grades found in China’s terrestrial deposits. Over the past decade, Tokyo has steadily funded exploration and pilot-scale research. Yet none of these efforts have crossed the threshold into commercial extraction.

The reason is structural, not geological. As this media has disseminated to a much broader global community to learn, rare earth dominance is defined less by where the material sits than by who can process it. Although the West, led by the United States and the Trump administration, is working furiously to catch up, according to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data, over 90% of global rare earth refining capacity remains concentrated in China as of 2025. Complex separation chemistry, cost discipline, and industrial scale—not discovery headlines—continue to determine supply-chain power.

In that context,China’s calm response may have been the most confident signal ofall.