Highlights

• U.S. unveils $12B Project Vault to counter China's 85-90% dominance of rare earth refining.
• Western initiatives lack binding industrial strategy to survive Chinese price warfare.
• South Korea imports over 90% of its rare earths from China while chairing U.S. supply-chain initiatives.
• South Korea must balance alliance loyalty against material dependence, akin to a migratory bird sleeping with one eye open.
• The true bottleneck isn't mining but midstream/downstream capacity: separation plants, metals, and magnets require 5-7 years to build.
• These processes cannot be completed in the politically seductive 18-24 months.

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In a column (opens in a new tab) that reads like a field report from the edge of empire, a leading South Korean newspaper observes that the United States has finally awakened to the strategic power of rare earths. Washington has unveiled a $12 billion stockpile plan—“Project Vault”—to blunt China’s dominance. The warning, however, is unmistakable: urgency is not the same as readiness. China still controls the refining choke points and can retaliate at will. Korea, tethered to Chinese supply chains yet bound to the U.S. alliance, must remain alert—like a migratory bird that sleeps with one eye open.

That metaphor lands because it is true. What remains unresolved is whether Western resolve has yet crystallized into an industrial plan sturdy enough to survive a price war.

The Hard Facts Beneath the Poetry

Strip away the lyricism, and the column rests on solid steel. China still commands roughly 85–90% of global rare earth separation and refining, even as its share of mining is lower. This asymmetry matters. Beijing has already demonstrated—Japan in 2010, selective export controls in the 2020s—that rare earths are not commodities but instruments.

Project Vault, as described, fits the record. It is a hybrid of stockpiling and price support, designed to keep non-Chinese producers alive through inevitable market turbulence. The warning that rebuilding refining capacity will take five to seven years, not the politically seductive 18–24 months, reflects near-universal industry consensus. Mining alone is theater. Without separation, metallization, and magnet-making, there is no sovereignty—only ore. And the Korean media is acutely aware that it is loans that are to give the West life support.

Where Western Confidence Starts to Fray

The column slightly overplays the April 2025 shock. Yes, disruptions rippled through defense and advanced manufacturing. No, the U.S. economy did not convulse. But this quibble misses the larger problem the piece glides past.

The West hasinitiatives in abundance and execution in short supply. Project Vault.The Quad. The Critical Minerals Ministerial. The U.S.–EU Trade and Technology Council and more. They all gesture in the same direction—and recycle the same tools: price floors, offtake agreements, concessional loans, polite market nudges.

What is missing is a binding, loss-tolerant industrial strategy for refining and magnets (midstream and downstream) insulated from Chinese price warfare. Unlike Beijing, Western governments still flinch at forced consolidation, sustained losses, and state-directed discipline. Markets are asked to do the job of strategy—and markets, left alone, will blink first.

Why Seoul’s Unease Rings True

This is not a neutral analysis. It is Korean realism. More than 90% of South Korea’s rare earth imports still trace back to China, directly or indirectly. Chairing U.S.-led supply-chain initiatives while risking Chinese retaliation is not abstract diplomacy; it is a balance-of-payments wager.

The Real Signal

What this episode reveals is convergence without closure.

The West is coordinating—still experimenting. And of course, a lot of PR.

China retains refining leverage and pricing power.

Korea stands between alliance loyalty and material reality.

For investors, the message is blunt: until rhetoric hardens into enforceable industrial execution, Beijing’s position remains structurally strong. The true bottleneck—and the real opportunity—lies not in mines but in separation plants, metals, and magnets, and in a holistic approach to nurturing the entire value chain for several years.

Source: KoreaJoongAng Daily, Feb. 9, 2026.